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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    Hello gulf.
  2. Bubbler86
    I was not sure if this week or next but last year he still posted during his Florida trip.
  3. Bubbler86
    I will not be comfortable until we get into Rap range
  4. Bubbler86
    Yea, was not saying anything to suggest bad vs. agree with Chris that we (even out this far) probably mix especially with the current depiction of the low(s) path.
  5. Bubbler86
    Does the Nam redeem itself? I am not as eager to defend it as of late. It's never been, or ever will be, as bad as some make it out to be, buts its not been "hot" as of late.
  6. Bubbler86
    Yea, there has not be any model run, in quite some time, where we stay all snow.
  7. Bubbler86
    The 18z euro was beautiful. Almost hesitated under us for a bit. If we had not let March 93 or Jan 2000 sneak into our minds (well me at least), the 18z euro would seem like a super win.
  8. Bubbler86
    Watching the Upper layers on the models I keep seeing 850's breaking down far to the west of the "primary low" . Somethings up...it's not a simple cold to the left, warm to the right situation. We know 850 is driving to the west of the "L" on the surface maps but could it be driving in somewhat unison with the other wave? Just model talk. Waiting for a met to come shoot me down. I will not be offended.
  9. Bubbler86
    I still think we are seeing some jumping of lowest pressures with multiple waves. I know we are down south.
  10. Bubbler86
    Thanks for posting. Serious front end. By the time the low gravitates to us, I would think most of the LSV should be near or over double digits.
  11. Bubbler86
    Mag, it was the pivotal 10-1 map because many stations were higher on it than kuchera showed.
  12. Bubbler86
    I going with team voyager on opinions for this.
  13. Bubbler86
    That is actually quite "high" for a TV met call this early in the progression. That is an easy win if it happened.
  14. Bubbler86
    I think that 60 is blowing through downtown Harrisburg.
  15. Bubbler86
    I see it is a sort of Miller B like scenario but you are right, this is not your typical coastal takes over and goes into Bomb mode. The modeling shows this as being a mess with a new low that is captured. There is also the issue of the ULL 850 and 500 level energy that does not transfer completely at first.
  16. Bubbler86
    Post of the day.
  17. Bubbler86
    We tossed the Nam about an hour ago. It's GFS or bust right now. I get the finger though and Lanco/York are not going to like it.
  18. Bubbler86
    Speaking of this, the 18Z GFS still has two surface reflections (at least) per this panel...but also some darn heavy snow in there. Note the mix poking up into S/W PA from the inland reflection which is supported by the ULL.
  19. Bubbler86
    Consider this a board cheer up after the Nam. Not sure I trust TT Accum graphics but its what I have in front of me. Reminder that the Icon does not show any Sleet or Frz in it's surface panels. Its snow or rain, that's it.
  20. Bubbler86
    Icon trended west with the eventual track as well. More of a thump than the Nam but it goes from Winchester, To Rouzerville, then Bunions before lifting out of PA.
  21. Bubbler86
    Yea, I see it is more south at the Surface. 850's are similar though.
  22. Bubbler86
    It's a board hug moment. Storm cancel for everyone (Model PBP not forecast).
  23. Bubbler86
    Yep. What was once a Miler A like Gulf coast run went to the inland SLP punching well up into the Lower Ohio Valley before a real transfer starts. Warm surges Northward with it. 850 low scouring many out at hour 81. The Nam out of range gang gets one for their side with this change.
  24. Bubbler86
    It is quite a bit different in that it holds on to the inland slp to a higher latitude which puts in more in line with the GFS depiction. This allows the ULL features to get much farther north which is, as you said, not good. 850 low is over S PA which means it's "over" for south PA at that point.
  25. Bubbler86
    Nam is running North of its previous 18Z position as of hour 69. It's the state of Alabama difference.
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