Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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18Z HRRR and 3K are very well aligned in direction and location of "the low" tomorrow AM. Less MCS like on both though the HRRR has a long period of rain. Both are limited qpf wise for the LSV. NAM12K has conceded west but is more MCS like.
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GFS is not too far off but not as extreme and a bit delayed. Several nights of 40's before that though.
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When will summer ever start!! LOL
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One thing different could be duration. HRRR and 3K both have it lasting about 7-8 hours.
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These clusters are always hard to pin down. I would not plan any overnight camping there just yet. The HRRR takes most of it west of PA altogether while here is the Nam.
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Just tacked on about a tenth if a inch through a tropical like downpour that came through.
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The warm temps win almost every month. I keep telling him that. Our colder maps are the losers posting hope.
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Is this a 30's night for you?
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18Z a tad south and west.
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Sitting outside cracker barrel off 15 in mechanicsburg and it is quite nice outside the sun.
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Speaking of the Euro, the heat is relentless for some just to our west. The rare Gray Hot colors in GA and SC.
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NWS AFD pulled out the MCS term as well. I have been using the term clipper more in a joking manner as we do not see it in the summer but looks like it intensifies when coming down off the top of that heat dome to our west. With an actual point of LP I never know when it goes from a vort to an MCS. or vice versa. Nam is way east.
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Both the Nam and GFS are a bit too far east (heaviest) for even you right now. It would destroy AM rush hour for Philly as depicted. Both people driving and WFH's types trying to get their paper on their walk from the bedroom to their office. LOL.
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This is the big boy threat for flooding rains but it keeps moving ever so slightly North in it's trajectory. The LSV was too far east a couple days ago...now borderline too far west.
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Looking at models I would expect at least some sun between vorts and fronts. HRRR has us on the warm side of the front this afternoon so low 80's possible. Would think sun would be part of that.
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Personally, I think there will be scattered strong to severe, late afternoon. Most of the rain last night was just south of Harrisburg through the rest of the LSV. Marysville bubble in effect.
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Meso's show 3 more lines, heavier this evening and tomorrow Am, going through all of southern and central PA over the next 24 hours. Still looks like Marysville may be of for a while today.
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Looks like a lot of showers moved through the LSV this am.
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The HRRR has scattered showers from 3AM on through the day so just a matter of luck I guess. Not a widespread rain. If she was in Waynesboro she would have been cancelled today so 1-1 so far in Marysville. Congrats to her for the wins.
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GFS LR is more than noticeably hotter than this AM. What a flip.
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LOL, I thought you were saying its been a great and sunny day. I know you guys did not get as much rain up there but thought it was quite cloudy most of the time.
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MDT's least cloudy hourly ob today was Mostly Cloudy. The other ob's were overcast, Light Rain, Drizzle.
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HRRR and 3K both suggesting there will be quite a few losers tomorrow. Not overly impressive as to coverage.
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It stopped here around 2 but have not be home to check cocobubs yet Edit-.22. Checked estimated and some .3's in Adams and Cumberland. 63 for the high today.
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Have not measured over here yet but has not stopped raining since I got up. Would guess .1 to .2
