Bubbler86

Do not have the time to try and crack the code but would be interested to hear if someone can point out that the Nam algorithms are broken or there is something causing it to melt more than it looks like it should from the surface. But like you said, this is all digital and all that matters is the intrusion on the different layers. Both support change over from snow for most of the LSV and near by counties to the West.

You turned into a part timer.

Not much time to get off this complicated situation but may be right back in the same boat next weekend.

Not many concedes in here.

Yea, not many people have been talking about it and not totally sure why. Watching the model panels the last few days, the "L" has been flipping and flopping all over the place and these were not always zigzags. It was the model going toward any convective features or just picking one of the two for the L if both had the same pressure. Watching the 850 and 500 maps showed the dual nature more clearly. The dual nature sucks plain and simple. The Nam has been leading the way with this being our primary forecasting issue (especially for Western PA) but the storm is not here yet so it could be bunk come game time. But like usual, the faster the we get on the west side of the primary circulation of air, the less our column takes a beating.

See below though some of the more snowy models do not show much sleet in their precip panels.

MDT Blizzard.

Miller A (before)-A jumped mess of transfers and dual lows now. You are still in a good position though, right?

If I had to do that call, I would push the yellow dotted line a bit back toward Pitt for now.

It's very possible. If the Nam's depiction of the waves is close to correct, sleet is a much larger issue that the Euro or Gem showed.

Did you tell him or her to hold on, the Euro was coming in? Appease them by pointing out that its not slow like the Nam. Euro, like the GEM, was better at not pushing the westward extent of the 850's failure over our way. Here is the worst 925 and 850 for the LSV. On the 850's, we were about to lose them from the west the panel before this but the coastal has collapsed it on this panel.

Go ahead and get the plow ready.

FWIW, the Euro closely matches their WSW's.

10-1 quite a higher than Kuch in our neck.

10-1 map after most snow is done.

Extended Deform band through central PA at 72

Eastern low takes a bit of precedence at 66 but still quite a bit of rain and mixing.

Md to hvy snow through 2/3 of PA at 60.

Euro very consistent at 54. Warm push coming up both sides still via two waves.

I thought maybe you were afraid I would delete it while filling the gas.

Euro very similar to 0Z through 42.

Welcome back.

In refence to the cold?

Some of us have to get out of the house tomorrow and will be living vicariously via mobile. LOL. It's been a long haul...some 6-10 models 4x a day.

Yea, its a more simple, vanilla way for this to roll out. The inland low is absorbed sooner which shuts off the warm air over there...and the UL's are much more simple in how they play out with much less ice.