Bubbler86

Yep, so the Nam again easterlies us to death. Also drives the dying inland low in SW PA.

I was also joking....sorry.

It has a 998 low in KY and a 996 on the Carolina coast at 33.

That is some impressive, spot on PBP. You nailed! LOL

Why is it better? What did it change?

And a stronger inland low, especially if it pivots/transfers into VA, is a better situation than a coastal screaming easterlies at us.

That's what he said.

IMO, your worst case scenario would have been the inland low getting into W PA and dry slotting you. Otherwise, all other depictions are putting the wham jam on you.

Come on, B. I would have liked to see where this convo went with Harrisburg getting a fraction of an inch. LOL. You "ruined" my fun.

You are having issues with success aren't you? LOL

The HRRR sits the low of Rou'ville for hours, dryslot, and pounds Pitt proper. Dream scenario for them.

And its more than one run. Much less coastal/easterly fetch. Definitely the LSV special right now. Looks like it is showing 4-6" before the dryslot.

The HRRR is snowing on the LSV for a long time as it traverses under PA from KY. Still waiting for the final totals.

At hour 32 the HRRR has a still strengthening wave entering eastern KENTUCKY! LOL.

You are lucky you made it out of the MA board alive. They are not going to want to hear about your issues in Harrisburg. LOL.

If a low went under us and kept its core, we would be getting a back thump as well. Just dreams right now. But this is not a track issue, this is a completely different evolution on the 6Z. There is never a legit coastal wave at least into Monday. 986 going under my house. Let's face it, its probably wrong but its still a solution to discuss if one is so inclined.

Exactly what I was trying to convey in a PBP sense...not a forecast.

You and me, brother. I am hoping he puts a third accum over me and we break 30.

It's just very different in that it is strengthening the inland low which means its not getting ready to Miller B itself. We shall shortly see if it holds its ground.

LOL. After just defending watching every model for trends, I am not saying the HRRR is right. But I never believe in (actually despise) the thought process that this model is out of range, that model does not handle CAD well, etc...take what you can from the models and watch for trends. If the now running 12Z HRRR stands its ground and other suites show more with that western wave, we have a trend. If not, then I just had fun doing some model PBP.

Which model has been rock solid with this event? The GFS probably the best in sniffing out the capture and then the Nam suggesting the risk of warm intrusion. I can't say if the HRRR version could happen but the Western wave has been staying legit longer and longer in the other suites. So just trend watching. Plus, does it hurt showing something good? Glass half full.

Trend Watch. New HRRR will be out shortly but the 6Z continues to strengthen the original Vort as it climbs West of us and is blocked before it goes beyond our latitude. Actually has it crawling easterly under the M/D line for a bit. I suspect it is not programmed properly to anticipate the transfer to the coastal but if it holds at 12Z, its a valid way the LSV can get back into the real game. It would initially stick it to Erie as there is never a deform band from a strengthening coastal. The type of progression would lessen the speed and depth of an easterly breakdown of the LSV column.

It will not be too bad IMO if we either ice or dry slot and keep it.

Sleet aleet.