Bubbler86

Nam through 27 is close enough to not merit any major changes so far.

Yes, it is lightning with moderate thunder. Rain ++

One model had ITT getting to 67. Another one 65. Calling Ruin to fix this. We actually would have preferred that for our snow chance later this week.

We only managed a 52 bagger over here and it is down to 43 now.

I looked at the GFS and it is snowing in the north corner of SC on Wed. Without a capture we are too far North for that scenario.

Yea, entering Franklin County right now. Like Carlisle said, the high win warning has been a nothing so far so this may kick it into gear.

I agree, I am not sure why he keeps saying the same thing over and over...and this time he is talking about ensembles which are NOT forecasts vs. means. Does not "mean" they cannot be way off as to individual members but the mean maps are never forecasts. Using a mean map to assume results is like counting weights of 100 people walking into a building then "forecasting" that the next person will be a mean of them all. In many cases these are also members purposely fed false info to see how it would affect the end result. Their entire goal in life is to cross check the op's. If the mean is way off from the op's (upper air stuff, not snow maps) then that places the op's depict into question.

@CarlislePaWx left my house and it was 51. By the time I got about 10 miles to the east in the eastern foothills of the South mountain range now in Adams county it was 33 with an ice storm in progress with all elevated surfaces iced over....a couple hundred feet below my elevation back west.

Low in Central GA. A good one. PV/Center of high still sitting in Canada. Note how the contours are pointing NE up through PA but still East to West down in VA. That will limit how far north it can get at this stage (without a phase). The Nam will be a fairly decent snow storm in the LSV. GL with the other models at 12Z. My PBB work is done for the afternoon.

Most of PA (2/3ish) has light to moderate snow mid morning Wed on the 75 Nam panel.

Nam at 60 is holding fairly steady. I would think this will lead to some waa snows into PA again when the panels get into the later 70's. Worlds difference in where the weak S/S system is here vs. the souther models.

Nam is similar through 45. Probably would not see what the boundary is going to be until hour 70+. On another note, it was 33 when I got up this AM. It is up to 43 now.

The snow maps do not bother me and on this board in particular they seem to be popular but if someone says they see folly in posting snow maps with no science behind them/explanation of why, then I cannot argue too much as they do have a valid point (though again I am not a fan of separate boards or moderation.) Many, many, many snow maps are posted for naught if you look at it after the fact. To me the Snow maps are the fun side of the board but not fun for everyone I guess.

We were looking in the 209 corridor. Quite the different world there.

How is having a meteorological discussion of why a model is doing something a wish cast? LOL. Now if you mean the snow maps, which I do sometimes too, then carry on.

The reason you just posted, high chance of winter weather issue that are not present anywhere else.

When we were looking for a place in 2018 we looked from Adamstown to Hometown to areas up 11/15 and eventually over here...and the number one thing my wife eventually found is she wanted nothing to do with coming into the Harrisburg area from the mountains to the north.

If we get 55-65 we can probably assume the worst here AND despite the drought, the ground is quite wet at the top layer right now for smaller/more shallow trees.

Yea, spot on. The easier way to win in my opinion. Less influence from the High/TPV and we have ourselves a Secs/Mecs Miller A. Otherwise, we need the "kicker" (AKA the N/S trough) to suck the storm back as it is going to go wide with that boundary in the Carolinas.

I feel it has been a winter where the ridges have asserted themselves more than we want...and not talking the usual SER. More from the Northwest. I also feel like there have been two camps with this system so far, a classic Miller A which is wholly dependent on where the boundary is, and Miller B or hybrid type solutions. Too far out for the Meso's to show their hand on that though but if option one we need less of a push from the high and option b needs a possible collab from the N/S.

I worry that this may be a time that these warnings actually verify. We have had a string of events where the worst winds were with little or no highlighting.

The Nam is in great position to throw decent over running snows over a good portion of PA. 540 line is in VA not the Carolinas like it is on the rgem. The back stream reasons behind this are a fascinating discuss but seems people like the snow maps and final results more. The position of the high is a big reason for difference boundary positions.

Just opened one model so far this AM and it has hardly changed from yesterday 12Z except the precip field. It is a tiny bit S/E this AM which does make a difference but with all the different reasons being thrown around for when systems are or are not amping at certain locations, the Icon is a basic Miller A which turns the corner of the boundary tracks. 12Z Yesterday 6Z Today

We need something to pull if the confluence and 540 line is going to be so far south.

Like psu posted on the ma and the 540 comment here, the boundary is farther north which will lead to a much better starting position for a coastal along with waa snows. Still not my beloved Miller a though.