Jump to content

Bubbler86

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    26,743

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    HRRR has 5 hours of moderate or better snow at MDT. So if it could get to 1" an hour average we could have an over producer there. Latest is 2-5 for most of the LSV with the ridges/somewhat higher ground in Western Cumberland going 5-6 it appears. Lots of rain East of the Susq and well north.
  2. Bubbler86
    That is a fair call.
  3. Bubbler86
    Still some weird stuff with the forum. Check out what it shows Training posting on as to a thread
  4. Bubbler86
    Going to be a tough measure this go around. Probably dark when the transition begins.
  5. Bubbler86
    Yea, it would be great if it was in the mid teens when it started as to keep the plain rain at bay.
  6. Bubbler86
    You are near MDT and only have a point and click of 1-3"? Personally I would say 3.8" for MDT if I was forecasting. Surprised they do not go 2-4 for you.
  7. Bubbler86
    We are up 15 from the low. 18 with a low of 3. Pretty expected I think. Mid 20's to upper 20's when the snow gets here and maybe some drop when it moistens the column.
  8. Bubbler86
    Wow, a scolding and lecture. Someone got up on the wrong side of the barometer.
  9. Bubbler86
    Yea, it definitely trended back to be close to other models.
  10. Bubbler86
    I think the Nams line up with the other models fairly well right now as to low progression. Just about an 1" less for us. I ran through all the less common Meso's and 2-4" for the LSV and near counties seems to be the primary thought with almost everything 12Z so far. HRRR is more like 3-5".
  11. Bubbler86
    13/4
  12. Bubbler86
    Yea, will be interesting nowcasting. I think the most snow friendly models are going 6-7 hours. If the real low level holds longer than it would mean more frz. Hrrr has 6 hours of plain rain before the dry slot gets here.
  13. Bubbler86
    We are getting snow. It was just a slight pull back. RE: so far no surprises to the current forecast.
  14. Bubbler86
    Nam's are somewhat similar in distribution of snow in the LSV but about 1" less. Quite a bit less farther west. Axis of "heaviest" snow really pushing out into Ohio and far N/W PA so far on 12Z's
  15. Bubbler86
    First 12Z, HHHR, still has 6-7 hours of snow as the initial primary deepens to 991 pulling into S/W PA. A small step back from earlier accums. About 1/2" less at MDT.
  16. Bubbler86
    It would be uber important if if the primary last in the Ohio Valley/TN Valley longer than forecast. If the primary over NC takes over too soon, then both the high and low are directing winds at us from the East which means....
  17. Bubbler86
    This closeup from the HRRR shows the ridge game quite well. Area between Waynesboro and green Castle gets 4-4.5"", Blue Ridge Summit gets 6+.
  18. Bubbler86
    Where did you go? Vaca? I am always curious since I am down there so much. I once drove from Miami to Philly non stop (except to go food). Will not do that again!
  19. Bubbler86
    Down to 3 for a low here. 10 right now with clouds increasing from the S/W
  20. Bubbler86
    We are down to 5 here.
  21. Bubbler86
    For wxbell to be right it would have to be over 1" an hour as mdt only has snow for about 4 hours per the research done. That was why the assumption was made that sleet was included. Its hours 22-25 at mdt. Flipped before hour 26. Could be a thump and be right. But either way, drastic differences between the maps. This may be a cause of some past confusion, who knows.
  22. Bubbler86
    I just called some friends in on this and it suspected that wxbell is including sleet due to changeover algorithm issues. I am not sold on that as it could be a pivotal issues but either way we do have two very different outputs. Obviously TT cannot be used. Either wxbell or pivotal is having an issue with the changeover.
  23. Bubbler86
    I tried both. It looks nothing like the map blizz posted. It does show the tongue of heavy snow down into Cumberland. Shows mdt and training at 2, 2.5"
  24. Bubbler86
    I looked 3 times and pivotal shows mdt at less than 3" kuch on 0Z gfs. So many map issues recently. Maybe sleet issues?
  25. Bubbler86
    That finger of heavier snow keeps showing up in Cumberland County on different models. Strange coincidence/depiction.
×
×
  • Create New...