Bubbler86

Hanover Toyota just told me they are closing early due to the ULL coming through (not joking)

Will chime in with some others who said it, without a phase, how does that come up the coast? Not directed at your post, model discussion.

Masontown to Holidaysburg band, at least on radar, seems to be putting down some snow.

If you followed the posting from the last few days, Snow Showers is the new secret word to suggest good things in the snow department. Last year it was Buckle Up.

Right now the best banding is setting up in True Central PA again. Probably going to retreat south but...

Interesting and obvious thoughts in the MA forum. I say obvious because they are but not sure I had thought of it yet. We were so gung ho on using Kuch because of the antecedent cold air but if one looks at the 10-1 maps maybe the model outputs were a bit more realistic. QPF in Lanco was 2-3" on a lot of outputs....10-1 that is 2-3" of snow. It is almost 30 degrees here right now. Kuch may have over done it this time (sometimes Kuch is lower of course but obviously much higher up this way for this storm.)

I will opine that anyone who is wrapping up the snow totals and judging forecasts off them is risking be off base. All the forecast and snow maps were for the entire storm, not just this AM.

Mod snow and 28 here.

The HRRR last night (18Z) did have an area of banding about 2/3 up into PA. Pivotal does not have the product to see if was suggested 700 fgen. It does show 1-2" up there, think they probably got more, but something is still missing from the equation when you look at the snowfall map for say Lanco or just under the border in Northern MD. It had to be forecasting more forcing there for those 6-10" totals which ended up being 3-4". Not sure many if any models depicted what happened in the LSV and N MD.

ULL moving ESE and fairly well defined in KY/OH on this pic

Later Nooners. 26 and sun through clouds helping a bit with driveway, I had shoveled early this AM, but drifting is counter acting it. Cannot have overly extensive drifting with 4" but some roads are getting covered again after the plow went through.

The good thing about the icon being off is that this board allows the "It is the Icon, why bother" mantra to cast it aside when it does not show what we want.

There are two (or more) things at question here...the bashers and then the model parade, which I know you are not a total fan of especially snow maps, so thanks for putting up with some of us who like to compare and break it down. Many of the model paraders did issue forecasts which conflicted with the high model outputs so there was some actual forecasting/guessing be done.

Sorry, I do remember now. Someone who has a green icon I think.

Very true. Point and click and then impatience on top of it to not go any further. Plus lack of time.

I personally do not recall any met bashing on her except for ruin (with this storm). We Bantered about whether they would bump up Lanco and York to WSW but was just discussion on whether they would do it. If you you think being a couple inches behind on possible snow is bad for many here, remember Hagerstown's NWS headline read 8-12 with 18" lolly's. They got that one DRASICTALLY wrong.

Good Post. I think some, I am guilty too, post models as a way to cheer up the forum. I often see posts after a model post stating how the snow on that model is going to affect something as if the forecast is locked in. I think we all do it at times. LOL. So people take each run in a bubble per se at times. I am busy at work and you or someone else may have said it but to me the real value of modeling, at least in the lead up, is trends. In defense of model watching, you often see a lot of reference to them in AFD's though they also mention why they are adjusting away from the verbatim,

I am not sure any here even rely solely on models. Some of us enjoy the game of model watching and that is why we throw them all out there and compare as we go but lots of convo here about fgen, precip being eaten by dry air, etc and what it could or could not do for us and that was not shown on the models. Ironically all that non model convo was wrong too as the better forcing set up north of us and there was not a sharp cut off like a lot of us discussed (at least not near us.)

Yep, would not bet any money on it can still track and hope. We are close to 4" here with several measurements. Elevation probably helped with the extra precip dumping as it climbed the mountain. Still a bit underwhelming to me as well after trends late yesterday. The post plow snow hill was quite high so almost all laid on the streets. 3K too

@Chris78 the latest HRRR rocks us after dark.

On this radar view you can see some of the forcing in N Central PA is collapsing back a bit. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Virginias-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I think the 500 low is in SE Ohio right now

AKA dryslot. 700 Meso

What I call Rouzerville but actually part way up the mountain. We are near 4 now. Snowing at a decent clip.

3.5" close to official measurement right now.