Bubbler86

Thanks. Makes sense.

LOL. No one, just not the type of event that would seemingly get us all. Now if Enola, Lemoyne, Marysville, and Colonial Park all get 1/2" but Downtown gets nothing, I am going to be accused!

Wow, he is really gung ho. I am not trying to win I just want muh rains (for most of you as well). Has he commented on the weekend chance?

I bet. Do not take any of my enthusiasm as wanting mud for you. LOL. But think between the chance of the low coming a bit farther north and afternoon convection, even if it does not, we could get some beneficial rain Sat. If the low scoots out much farther south then not so much. Fri night looks fairly safe I would think.

Nam took a decent step north for Friday Night/Saturday. Getting closer for Eastern LSV. If this was winter, people would be watching runs every 6 hours.

12z Meso's are a little less giving with rain totals today. Still scattered cells just a little less numerous. Guess we will see when the radar starts to light up in 2-3 hours. Already some light rain in Cumberland and Lancaster county (may not be reaching the ground.)

Speaking of AFD's just noticed CTP is actually suggesting the Saturday SLP comes farther north. This is one heck of a great dry pattern. All medium range guidance supports a return to more humid and unsettled conditions this weekend into early next week, as a deep southwest flow develops ahead of a slow-moving upper trough approaching from the midwest. Model consensus tracks a lead shortwave over our region Saturday, with an associated weak surface low passing just south of the state. This feature should produce a chance of showers over central Pa, with even a period of steadier rain possible over the southeast counties, closest the surface low track. Scattered PM showers/tsra appear a good bet Sunday in high pwat air mass with falling heights and upper level diffluence ahead of upper trough.

Quick scan of the MA ob's thread and an interesting observation myself. It seems some are sort of wishing summer out early similar to what they do in Feb with winter. Lot's of rejoicing over the Non August like weather.

Maybe they are putting some hardwood in today and are wish casting the rain away? Has WHTM relented off their mainly dry? Seems the rain today could be pop up like so not everyone scores most likely. Sat would be a great event if we get one more jump north. It has been trending north the last few days.

The floor guys must have seen the HRRR for this afternoon? 53 this AM. Winter like SLP scooting just to our South Sat AM. One more North trend and Saturday is a rain out. Likewise, a south trend and little to no rain Sat.

The best kind of storm...where the totals are upping leading into the event. Already down to 62 here!

The 18Z Nam 3K and the HRRR look great for a very active LSV afternoon tomorrow. Will still be some losers but hopefully lots of winners. That 2" jackpot is not far from from the Dauphin//York/Lanco border.

Peak at 78 here

Rain? I know some floor installers who will not be happy to hear that. Only 76 here.

Today's rain does appear it is being held to Northern Dauphin, Perry, Northern Cumberland and Northern Franklin parts of the LSV.

Sorry, I forgot about that. :-)

Oh, that is not an issue my friend. You would be sitting on 2+" of wet gold by this point, it was something else.

@paweather, take a gander at this map...what do you see?

The GFS is an extreme jump in the wet direction and not overly well supported but I guess that is what the deal will be tomorrow...there is a risk for heavy rain on the periphery of that lows flow. Thur-Sun is all very scattered afternoon cells on the GFS.

Not nearly as much for Western Adams but .5 to 1" for Eastern...but again trying to pinpoint how a close to cut off SLP exactly moves is up for guessing.

You would take that, right?

It is running now and very wet for tomorrow. Has rain chances in the LSV every day into mid next week...with this Thursday being the driest.

Pillow is making a run for 90.