Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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The once dry GFS is now probably the wettest of the more popular models as it continues to intensify and move Ian further North before landfall. In additional it now throws back more moisture from any costal development late weekend/early next week. I say this realizing that the Florida Gov just went on National TV and used the GFS as an example of why people did not evacuate.
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Also moved the center line of the cone north closer to myrtle.
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Yea, leaving Tampa to go some place where the storm will be passing first makes little sense. 2017 Irma is the same case. Tampa was in the cross hairs and it turned in well to the south with much less warning than this one.
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It was a two part interview with Jim Cantore....not sure if it is online anywhere. Not sure criticizing the GFS is the right word vs. Using it as an excuse as to why people in SW Florida did not evacuate.
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I thought it interesting that he insinuated the public was mislead by the GFS. Just mentioning a specific model in a interview like that is a surprise. I thought he did a good job in the interview as an overall view on it.
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Not political just commenting on a person of status, the Gov of Florida just did an interview on TWC and when talking about why people may not have evacuated he pointed out the GFS showing the storm hitting the Panhandle as one reason.
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There have been a few runs/progs that showed a southern NC landfall.
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@paweather, a bit late notice for gift shopping wouldn't you say? Just the same I wrapped up something for you that I saw on the 12Z GFS. Box is see through on the one side.
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His parlay finale is the Sixers trading for Ben Simmons.
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Saturday around dawn on everything i looked at. Not sure what your Fav is but here is the Rgem as a middle ground
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I was trying to defend the NHC and say that if you have a suite of models of which almost none show a landfall/track at a certain place (in this case a wide loop back into the Atlantic) you are probably not going to go off on your own and suggest something that has no backing. We all know that the models can change drastically run to run and the NHC/NWS relies heavily on them as forecasting is much better than the alternative of not using them.
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People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days. Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago. If we are going to talk cone then there is not much to discuss. I thought the disco was on actual landfall and track of the core. No model that I noticed had Ian escaping Florida until a couple days ago which explains the track the NHC was putting forth.
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I was looking at the NHC track just two days ago, not the cone. My point was that humans cannot guess things such as Ian escaping Florida (well they guess but that is not really a forecast) so their track was based on modeled outcomes. I am defending the NHC because they forecast the best they could with the information they had. People are debating landfall forecasts so this was a comment on the eventual track post landfall.
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It is great but nothing showed Ian escaping like this so NHC's track was solidly over land after landfall.
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Ok, rephrase, come off Florida at all. It is not a shot at the NHC it is just not easy to forecast stuff like this with accuracy. The tech did not get it right until a day or two ago.
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Dry off at the progressive's!
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How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane? I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago. NHC is as good as the tech.
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Every model I looked at has .5 to 1.5" by Sunday AM in NYC.
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Nothing in direct relation to Ian's core. Ian dies off to our Southwest. A new low forms off the coast of OC, MD and spins off into the Atlantic. Miller I? There is a line of heavy rain though so sure there will be some left over wind. Seems 10M wind in the 20's which is just a normal day sometimes.
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Especially if there is ANY assistance in rebuilding it. Self insured only.
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Nooner is 59 and darn right chilly out with a stiff breezy. Yesterday we had gusts into the upper 30's.
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JB, The Nam, Ukmet all winners? What is next, The Dolphins with the Super Bowl?
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Yep, saw this pic. But that collapsed part is a show stopper. No 4 wheelers to get over that.
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Some show a Cat Two when using MB as the gauge.
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The progs which shall go unnamed because they are right more than others want to admit, show it over water for 24 hours.
