Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Yea, 2-3 day deform band for NYC starting tomorrow into Wed on the models. LSV rainy tomorrow as well.
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JFK and LGA both had 3/4"! Maybe before you got out and about.
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I looked around and obs and did not see many other windy ones so a bit of a wind tunnel effect on on the side of the mountain for me it would seem. Have a safe trip.
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12Z HRRR rain to come. Heavy bands roll over the LSV this evening into the night and then the LSV is in the deform band of a forming coastal later tomorrow. Not a forecast just a model interpret.
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If it hits 80 on Thursday it will be like a summer redux in Marysville! VERY early nooners. Light rain, 47 degrees and sustained winds around 20 gusting to mid 30's. Windchill on gusts is 37. Gust to 41 at 9:20AM.
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It is very windy over in Philly. Saw gusts near 50 with sustained in the 30's.
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Seems the "core" drove a bit farther north than forecast. Steady 20-30MPH wind right now with a few gusts near 40. Constant sound in the background.
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https://twitter.com/EFisherWX/status/1576022345051156481?s=20&t=IAHBnocZRThMPKk1zgCfPg
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...and self insure or pay a couple grand per month in insurance.
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Just looked at last 5 hours of radar. Some nice ridge enhancement north of Harrisburg and a large area of rain plus moved through central lanco.
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I had not looked all afternoon. I hope we get enough rain to feed the seeds.
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Not looking at models right now but remembering 12z the real rain was not there until 2-10am.
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The nam scored the victory today. Never hurts to have the nam be the king.
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Ian is here. Light Ian rain at the M/D line. Expecting 2-3" here.
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That and zones where there is no insurance and no government help. If you live here, you are 100% self insurance.
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Bolded made me chuckle on a late Friday.
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If not on the heels of Ian in Florida, this would be a big story.
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Yea, was just not sure if they were already in the water. Maybe there was a way down without getting pummeled by the rocks. I heard a cop call for rescue.
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Did those people tumble over the rocks into the water or did the gate stop all the people being pushed?
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Euro trends toward the higher end of the 2" with some over. Lots of light rain all weekend into Tue from the coastal front just to our east.
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Using mb to gauge it is now a low end Cat 2. I agree that officially it will not be called that but it is a mid to high end Cat 1 by any gauge.
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977 so now a Cat 2 mb gauge wise. That was called impossible yesterday.
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First potential LSV freeze next weekend on the CMC and GFS but before that, 1 or 2 days in the 70's and an outside shot at 80 for the HIA....depending on high placement to the North. Dry after this weekend/early next week. The Maytown electric company likes the 70's.
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Most mb --> Cat conversion charts I have seen have Ian being 1mb away from being a Cat 2. Understand it is not that simple since Winds are used as the primary determiner but do not think this is a minimal Cat 1 either.
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I think the storm is coming further north on its initial landfall so any solutions that said no rain seem out the door. The GFS was basically that just a day or so ago. I would not forecast 2-4" either. 1-2" seems safe for a forecast. The key with the GFS is the additional rain early next week. Now may be a good time to do over seeding of grass if being done this fall.
