Bubbler86

The OP GFS reversed course and now does not get the rain and marine air into the LSV and MSV on Sun. Down to just the Euro out of the big 3. Could really use the rain.

MDT also went well below the other nights recently and is at 36.

Mod frost and 32 this AM.

They were dominant the whole period. Quite impressive.

LOL. I do not have the AC on either, so it is going where it wants. It was 64 this Am. Fuddruckers. LOL, been so long since I was there but this did remind me of an interesting point from a previous topic...the Cracker Barrells near OC. Md/Lewes, De service beer!

People on the western fringe of the LSV, Fall Trailgating Weekend at Strawberry Hill. If that low can hold off for Saturday it could be very nice near or low 70's with BBQ and Beer. Michaux brewery will be supplying the beer. @Itstrainingtime can you believe it is up to 72 in my house. What the heck. No heat. Trailgating is Strawberry Hill’s annual community event! The afternoon is full of family fun for all ages, with live music, food, games, children’s activities, nature crafts, a campfire, and live animals. Free Admission Featuring food and beer by: Antietam Dairy, Frontier BBQ, and Michaux Brewing Co. Live music by the Brahman Noodles from 12:30-3:30pm. Campfire, S’mores and storytelling (by Anne Griffith). Cornhole Tournament…$5/team…and fun prizes!

A windy 61 out. I see some leaf mulching in my future this afternoon.

Euro throws the full force of its weight behind the GFS rainy Sunday afternoon progs

12Z GFS doubles down on a rainy second half of the weekend.... drives the coastal even farther west. Definitely a large effect on Sun and Mon temps after an upper 60's/low 70's day Sat. GFS still has those 75-80 late afternoon temps later in the week though in adding 3-5 on top of low 70's at 18Z. Two nights it stays in the 60's which may be record worthy. CMC is not on the same page as the GFS and keeps the coastal farther away and has 7 days potentially over 70+ highs and one day in the 80's extrapolated.

Nooners, 55 sunny and very windy. Gusts near 30.

Looking at the wind profiles and clouds, on the HRRR, tonight feels like one of those "I just had a frost warning fail then a freeze warning fail, I am going down to 30 with no warnings tonight" type of night for some.

Saw a note on the MA board that Dulles airport scored two 33's and a 34 over the last 3 mornings. The lowest reading at either CXY or MDT seems to be 39. It appears that MDT has not hit 32 or below in October since October 19th, 2015.

GFS and NAM have a miserable Sunday now for 2/3 of the state....scattered rain (mostly GFS) and raw. CMC and Euro not buying it yet though. GFS/NAM highs in the 50's.

A smattering of below freezing temps many seemingly valley based as I have one not far from me but 300 feet down.

Low of 36 here. I see Cash is in the upper 20's. MDT 42.

The sun broke out here, but we never got above 47. However, it is still 46 right now. Both MDT and CXY went well above model progs I saw getting to 54 or 55.

RGEM had this at 12Z and did not think to mention but still there at 18Z. Predicting a similar result as last night where Wagons South has the better atmospheric conditions for a freeze. We see how well this verifies tomorrow. Low 20's in VA ridges.

Thanks! I added an MU comment yesterday. Hope I did not offend! LOL Interesting how different places have different interpretations for the growing season. As others have said, my grass is probably not going to abide by any calls for growing season to be over.

The AFD does not really delve into too much. They talk more about the extended.

My zone says low of 34. Maybe an update coming.

Great graphic from the Euro showing the forecasting challenge as depicted. You would think there would be rain in Eastern PA with this map but there really is not, just an air mass. Western Franklin in the mid 70's, Eastern in the 60's. EC is a day ahead of the other two in fully clearing the front mid week and lowering temps back to normal.

12Z CMC and GFS continue to suggest at least parts of the LSV will escape one (or maybe two?) day of the progged 5 day warm up when a back door/ULL front keeps temps in the 50's at least one day this weekend. Outside that possible chill for some this weekend, both models predict areas of the LSV to see a few days in the 70's (even an 80 possible at CXY) in the Sat-Wed period with the highest likelyhood of the double dight AN temps being Tue and Wed but still a chance even before that. One daytime high record would be in play on both the CMC and GFS....October 25th high of 76 at MDT which was set last year. Normal highs next week are 62 and 63 at MDT. Model Discussion/Not a forecast. Temps based on adding 3-5 degrees to the 2PM panels both for bias/recent verifications and additional warming post 2PM.

Nooners...44, windy, mostly cloudy and quite cold. Winds sustained in the 15 area with gusts to 25. Wind chill ~35

HRRR's low point for tonight...maybe knock a degree or two off this for a bit of bias seen sometimes. 3K NAM is colder on the ridges but was way too cold last night in not properly dealing with the clouds and wind.

I brought up a comment my neighbor made a few days ago. He expects me to go into his yard and clean up my leaves. LOL. I should have told him to show me the leaf serial number to confirm it came from one of my sugar maples and not my neighbor who also has them. I mulch every few days to try and keep it to a minimum though.