Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Definitely the trend at 12Z. Outside the Gem outlier, the wave did not have enough room to form in time for it to be a consequential system for us. But, it is such a convoluted situation, we are just watching models for fun at this point. So many things can change in the next 72 hours.
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In contrast to the Gem, the UK has a much weaker and later starting wave that misses some of the LSV for Sunday. The Gem is mostly on its own right now pending the EC.
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Despite almost full sun, a brutal 21 with a Windchill of 4 for nooners.
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27 -28% drop. A big difference from the 8-9% raise in usage.
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Mid Next Week the GFS has the Paweather 540 line visiting Cedar Key Florida while the CMC has a monster southern snow and ice storm brewing with the ridge much less amped down the coast and the 540 line visiting Pedro. GFS does have a Gorilla in the Gulf brewing late week though. People will like the GFS again for the next 6 hours.
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I predict a WB Kuch map before the day is out...that shows closer to a 10". LOL. The one big difference I see between the GFS and CMC is the vort is on the 90 hour map where the GFS has a well defined 996 slp off the VA coast while the CMC just has an weak wave at the same time. This allows the trailing piece of energy to form much faster and father west on the CMC due to spacing.
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10:1
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Actually too far west for the LSV Sunday afternoon. Rain in SE parts. A rainy Eagles game as depicted.
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Gem has the trailing low much further west than the GFS and starts us off with mixed precip (snow west) Sunday AM.
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GFS has a very delayed piece of energy forming/strengthening on the front, on to the Gem.
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Icon mostly a miss for Sunday but it had lost it at 6Z so this is a positive step. Eagles game still snowed on. The low forms a better signature a bit south east of where we would like.
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It would not be so frigid if the AC was on less!
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Met Winter Mid Way Point for Middletown Monthly Temp Deviation: Dec -1.3 Jan -2.4 (2 of last 3 days have actually been Above Normal surprisingly so this number is not as low as some would think) Snow Totals/Deviation: Normal Snow by Jan 14: 7.8" Total Snow so far for Met Winter 24/25: 5" Snow Deviation: -2.8" QPF Totals/Deviation: Normal QPF by Jan 14: 4.77" Total qpf so far for Met Winter 24/25: 3.9" QPF Deviation: -.87"
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Bagged an 11 here right now.
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It is a tough situation as others have stated. A trailing piece of energy forming on a front. Ripe for blown forecast to the plus or minus.
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Good call as to the Sunday event!
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Understand. It is what keeps model watchers going but can be an enormous waste of time. Your point is quite valid.
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You must have been watching the 18Z GFS. Not so happy hour on literals though potentials still good.
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Some returns in western Cumberland and Franklin now.
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Oh I saw it. If I had not already gone past my meme creation quota I had one ready to go with MU and Ralph in a car together.
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Euro has MDT at -6 Wed AM, GEM -7 and GFS 8. What kind of generator can you get to keep your house warm on this short of notice? Maybe he means a space heater. I have the wood leftover from my Cowboy's SB Champs 2025 parade float that I need to bust up and burn.
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UK likes the low to round into the trough which is not what the GFS snowless run was showing.
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All will be fine if it is Darnold throwing them. No hits.
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The Great White South
