Bubbler86

It's literally a lock coming from Richmond.

LOL, when you are talking more than a week ahead you better cover all ends. I do. LOL. I understand his way of thinking but he woofs a lot more than the average dog. If he and JB were in the room, no one coupld get sleep.

Saw this on the MA. Tolleris has gone to hour 552 map.

It has seemed to be the theme for several years now. Even if they hit a roadblock and transfer, they get too far north for us to get straight powder. It is why I always mention GAG because it is so rare that we get straight Gulf monsters recently.

Still only 39 here. Would not be so bad if not windy as well. Euro is back to winding up the Mid-West Low but signs of it being blocked and "trying to" transfer are evident on this pic....just no cold air to take advantage of that even if it happened. Messy Turkey Day for much of the eastern part of the nation on this depiction. It goes on to almost stall and intensify into a sub 970 SLP a few panels later. The transfer does not happen like it does on the GFS.

After pointing out how bad it was yesterday, back to the well on the GFS with the "Bubbler is not a Turkey" long ranger keep an eye on Turkey weekend thought. Still not what I am hoping for with a trailing front SLP but the GFS does block the Mid-Western Low now and turn it into a Miller B snow for area north of us...with some leftovers for the LSV Sat AM. Still think it bears watching and is our next meaningful chance of accumulating snow in much of PA.

I do remember those phrases and thought there were fairly common but maybe it was due to me listening to him so much? I use variably cloudy all the time but not considerable as much anymore. Spot on with your childhood cloud coverage thoughts. Variably cloudy was never get out of school cloudy.

Nooners and quite a bit more chilly than I was expecting. 39, windy and downright bone chilling out with an almost full cloud deck. CXY already 48, wow.

GFS only did well where it showed no snow for the LSV. I am a GFS fan but its late run up to the storm showed NWS should have been forecasting a plowable at MDT and basically all of the LSV west from there. When you go slightly west from the Capital area, the Canadian was way overblown as well. One of the worst GFS forecasts in quite some time though it was not so bad if you go back 48 hours...just the 24 hours leading up to the event. Here is the 12Z GFS from yesterday. It truly is laughable in the LSV. Canderson was 5" short. LOL

That is a worry for me as well. I have Tyler Bass and Gabe Davis.

A few short-term model verifications for this past snow using MDT as the spot. List below show approx snow forecasted at MDT and is listed in rank of which model appears to have done the best the morning on the snow. Just taking Nam, Rgem, GFS, Euro, and Icon...using the graphic output on Pivotal and rounding a bit. MDT recorded a Trace of snow. Good call by the NWS in not buying into the GFS this run as to short term forecasting. #1 Nam-No snow predicted. Some snow shown on TT in elevations near MDT. #1 Icon (TT)-No snow predicted #3 Euro-~ 1" #4 RGEM-~ 1" #5 GFS-4-6"

Lots of wet but not white on the LR GFS. I still have hopes for some type of follow up SLP on the Thanksgiving weekend front but that is not showing on the progs and the cold air is also becoming more limited in availability for a few days after Thanksgiving so about to give up on that. Apparently a few GEFS members do show the white Turkey a la King, Sandwich and Soup possibility

34 this Am

I think MU had a really good call. Sounds like the capital belt area may have over achieved but he ignored the modeled big snows. He is still not the number one Elliott though. Lol

I do not think you ever thought it was going to snow much in the historic district this time but check out Rou'ville. About 1/2 of the models, we normally look at had me getting close to WSW snows. Something that is not being talked about much. Pretty big bust for those models. Quick memory is that the Nam and Euro did the best here on this one with the Icon not far behind. GFS was off its rocker here, CMC was ridiculous as was its baby brother the Rgem. Here is the GFS from 24 hours ago. 4-6" up in here (not). Surely some of this can be attributed to elevation and the GFS inability to show that in its smoothed over maps but I do not think even the elevated areas here got much more than a couple inches. I am at 800 feet and I went up to close to 2000 feet and it was not 4-6".

The normal access is to go to Pen Mar Park and keep going up the road. It is beside Quirauk Mountain. When you get to near the top there is a guarded area you cannot enter (government) but there is a GREAT view in the public area right there. From where you are you would take 16 to Blue Ridge Summit, make a left at the main road then go back until you come to a curve going into Cascade/Ft Ritchie and you will see the sign for Pen Mar Park and take a right to head in the correct direction.

I was not paying attention, but we switched back to a pouring rain and back up to 33.

I bet Blue Ridge is 1-2" at this point. I know the road up to high rock is (grass/sides).

I am still interested in Thanksgiving weekend and a trailing low possibility.

Ahh Taneytown. I get in trouble from one person if I saw Tawney but then someone else scolds me if I say Taney. Lol.

We may be looking 8-12 if temps upstairs were colder along with the surface. We have about .6" of plain rain. This would have been Nov 15th 2018 all over again.

Pretty much the same here though it is still snow and 31. Roads are probably not caving this time of the year without rates or 20's.

Light snow here and 31. No road cave yet. Snow is very wet.

How much Candy did you snag?

Last call on the GFS trended toward the other suites favoring the far West and North LSV and SC.