Bubbler86

There is a Christmas Eve, Eve snowstorm but I was speaking to the late week opportunity. It comes fairly close to us again and is a mix to rain on the GFS and CMC. All rain on Icon. GFS and CMC both take it near Philly which is no bueno with the moderate air around.

Globals, Op's wise, do not see to care what you would like.

Brightening up here...up to 40

Hey, even if this late week thing does not evolve correctly, the GFS (only commonly used model that goes out to Christmas) has 2-3 more chances for a White Christmas event. Right now, only the Euro sig shows snow in parts of the LSV for late week and man it is a forum splitter. I do not buy this though as to snow in the Western LSV when you have a decaying (or Wiggum Rotting) SLP in MIchigan and a developing SLP in Havre De Grace. Sleet, sure, but hard for me to fathom the entire column survives a Western Low that close when the developing low is on our doorstep.

Rain here as well. 34. Our south standing took us out this AM,

Congrats on scoring this Am.

Yep, if the low escapes while strengthening.

18Z GFS had a fairly decent jump east with the position of the SLP bringing snow into the Western and Northern LSV and all areas North and West of there. It drills just North and West of Philly as the low escapes and does not overwhelm them with an easterly flow. Because it escapes, totals in Northern PA are close to cut in half in some cases. Some snow in the South and East LSV but not like I81 and N/W.

MU likes the Dec 19th-26th period....for much of the LSV he is looking at thread the needle type situation for a snowstorm earlier. LOOOONG READ linked with a snip of it below. To make a long story short, the strength and orientation of the blocking will have to be "just right" to support a "snowmaker" across southeastern PA. In addition, the position, strength, and evolution of the storm system over Atlantic Canada will play a big role in determining whether or not.. and where.. redevelopment occurs along the East Coast. I won't dive any further into the weeds, but you can now easily see why so much uncertainty exists in the forecast late next week. Predictability and accuracy beyond 3-5 days decrease and are greatly reduced during strong -NAO periods, and numerical computer models don't hande the evolution of storm systems very well. Thus, the forecast beyond 5 days is and will continue to be rife with uncertainty for the foreseeable future. Special Weather Discussion | Millersville University

I do not think anyone is...just some group humor. Throwing in the towel now is as bad as telling your neighbors 1-2 feet is coming. Both are big risks. Now if someone is sold on the Icon being the breadwinner this time...then towel in. LOL. The SLP is taking a tour of the Lakes.

Chase to Caledonia? Anyone reading the maps and taking them as a forecast may be disappointed (or may not be). But if posting maps to talk model fun, I love it. LOL

Late nooners....a quite chilly and wintery cloudy day and 35 degrees.

WxUSAF jokingly states what many think each time the snow is to our north. Insert Binghamton for us. Tuck baby, TUCK!

Definitely a NEISIS 3-4 potential as to that depiction. Would be a classic for Dec. #Blizzard of 22

Juiced is synonymous with qpf amounts and SLP mb's. The CMC was about 3/4" total qpf (of which much is not snow in the LSV as you stated) while the Euro was close to double. The Euro depiction of the SLP was about 8-10mb lower than the CMC which scoots the storm out faster.

And ironically that is not directly the same "storm" as the EC big snow.

GFS and CMC not as impressed with potential for next week (GFS slides by to the south and CMC not as juiced as the Euro and warmer, both do drop some accum snow just nowhere near the Euro) but GFS spins up an LSV special Sat-Sun of next weekend. A system intensifies in the base of the trough and tucks into the Northeast Corridor.

Up 9 with 27 ticks left. Then they needed ad to miss a ft. It was an epic collapse but they ruled ot.

If Blizz takes off, who will run the air control tower at MDT? Those planes don't go over Maytown by accident.

Wow, what a cluster in Philly.

ESPN announcer: DeAnthony Melton, also known as Shake.

Thye cold air potential on the models (Op's and ensembles) is quite impressive the last two weeks of the month. Not necessarily for depth/extreme of the cold in PA vs. the potential for such a large part of the nation to be cold.

Queue the "we should not be looking at model to model runs" chatter. LOL. or "it's good to be in the game". LOL. Those are both top responses when more than 2-3 days away. LOL.

The Euro tucks...not ideal for the LSV but most of the rest of PA is in for golden white abundance. The snowfall maps shows some decent totals at the northern edge of the LSV and some accumnulating other areas. A positive trend from 0Z though.