Bubbler86

Check out this frontal passage on the 18Z GFS. Snowstorm wise, this is probably too much of a good thing temp/PV wise.

The GFS is again favoring the CENTRAL AND EASTERN LSV (vs West) for a flip to snow after a period of sleet and freezing rain.

The Orlando low is from the 1800's so probably not MCO. LOL. FWIW, Orlando has gone under 25 more than 30 times in recorded history.

This reminds me of some all-time records for Florida just for compare... Statewide: 1899 it reached -2 in Tallahassee First recorded appearance of snow in Florida: 1774 when 3" fell in many Panhandle locations Lowest temp Recorded in Orlando: 18 degrees.

It is indeed...may give you reason to check out the 0Z to see if it holds!

The 3K is showing a slightly more favorable flip to snow before the column is overwhealmed....Northern LSV gets some white though it may be washed away.

Another good panel for discussion today....the EPS ensemble low positions for the 23rd White Christmas or bust situation. This was posted on the MA thread.

For me, definitely need to see the Op give up on its depiction quickly. Ensembles are a smoothed-out average...great for keeping the fast-changing Op's honest but have to review the members to get a real idea of where (and why) the averages fall where they do.

EPS is a much better look than the op.

Dreamworld is Garbage, IMO. Starlight at least tasted decent. Last I looked on ebay, Starlight is selling for $30-$40 a case of 12 small cans.

If it the starlight coke, I want to buy some. If dreamworld, throw it away!

Santa would need his rain coat and shorts. I saw an animation on the MA board showing it having a wave sitting in the Northwest US for several panels then push a trough down into the SW and ruin @Voyager's Christmas. EPS/ensemble runs will have a lot of weenies hitting refresh very soon...hoping to counter the op. @Itstrainingtime, what about your grass?

Euro is pretty Meh for the LSV as to later this week. Northern MSV gets slammed. 850 Low gets into SE PA. The Euro wants nothing to do with 12/23 either...cutter. 10 days out so just model talk. Euro has all kinds of energy traversing the middle of the country on the 23rd. Convoluted.

I picked that up from their twitter where they posted it at 10:00ish. https://twitter.com/NWSStateCollege/status/1602688004044251137/photo/1

It just hit 41 here. No wind for once on my side of the mountain so pretty decent out. Still winter like temps but not too cold to be out. MDT currently stands almost on the dot normal for the month. .1 over. Winter Storm Watch issued for the Western middle counties of the state.

I think something as optimal as that defintely needs a mention...if not only to see graphical output of how we can win. So many solutions show us the myriad of ways we can lose.

Did the Euro trade you to Canada?

In defense of the model, which we know will very likely not end up like this, the low is retrograding/phasing/tucking and also reforming to the North East at that point. If you go back a few panels you will see it sweeps up from off the coast of NC and is pulled by a low to its Northwest...classic. Those SE PA areas were never flooded with warm air on its "first pass" well to the east. But great ob and this is a interesting model breakdown of how it did that. The 850's from the panel posted are a thing of beauty as to a low pulling down cold air.

That entire track is a classic LSV/Leigh Valley Neisis level event.

Most people here are quite nice. In addition to paying for beer you also have to let us know how often you mow your grass and what you keep your house temp at in the winter. Those are a big deal here. :-).

Currently 33 and Sunny for Nooners Model Perusing. Winter is here.

That is my mountain. Pen Mar Park scores. High Rock is white rock. Posting snow maps for the fun but 12Z has been a slight improvement for many here...I still would never bet money on the mid-levels holding in any kind of situation like this so keeping expectations low.

GFS snow map on pivotal is....unique. But general sense here is that it continues to promote a wintery sceanrio. Does trainer get 5" or the hole of pain? Just north of DC gets plowable?

FV3 is much more modest with any collapsing column snows for the LSV. Here is the best panel but it only lasts 2-3 hours as the SLP gets too far north and pushes the line back north again. 1-3" in Northern LSV. 4-6" Northern MSV. Most of the LSV sees little snow.

I added to my post suggesting that map may be a bit misleading after looking over the column for the entire event. Doubt it would play out like that.