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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    This is not at all a suggestion of agreement but the GFS is more or less dry the rest of the year on the 6Z so hope for some adjustments there.
  2. Bubbler86
    The thing that bothers me with this situation is its precip indications. Take this one for example. Lower resolution may be hurting its forecasting skill on this event.
  3. Bubbler86
    GFS still the snowier of the models. Shows Canderson getting 4.7". LOL. The depiction is a bit of a mess and all over the place but it is what it is.
  4. Bubbler86
    Rgem also pushes rain into NY with little to no snow for the LSV. Far north part gets an inch or so on Kuch. Serious sleet bomb for West Central PA. And crazy FRZ map though this often does not verify in reality. The area of little Frz between the Western Mountain range and Franklin county gets a lot of sleet.
  5. Bubbler86
    The trend with all the 12Z's out so far, including the entire HRW suite I can see, is less sleet and more frz rain for us...and a short/small accum snow burst before switch to rain for the top of the LSV and lower MSV. Even the 3K has it. The 12K Nam is the only one without it so far. Most have all changing over to rain eventually...up to NY.
  6. Bubbler86
    Fv3 still shows a snow burst for the Northern LSV...later in the sequence of the storm.
  7. Bubbler86
    Here is the 850 map near the start of the precip. It is WAA so the precip is due to the warm push from the Southwest.
  8. Bubbler86
    The 700-800 area is near 40 for me, on the Nam, when the precip starts tomorrow AM. It does crash some and change to sleet for a bit.
  9. Bubbler86
    It is retrograding the system for areas north of PA (and far Northern PA) Friday.
  10. Bubbler86
    Sounds like a safe, reasonable call. The big question for you would be any snow at the end from the coastal.
  11. Bubbler86
    Yea, the Nam is now casting a bit with that. Here is the column over my area when the rain starts. I would argue that technically this should show as Freezing rain but still in the 30's at the surface. Temp 35-40 above.
  12. Bubbler86
    Oh boy, the Nam now starts the LSV off with rain on the Pivotal maps (changes to frozen with evap cooling) and has cut way back on sleet with the WAA. TT looks different though. Same model but TT has less rain at the front but does cut back on the sleet.
  13. Bubbler86
    I hear rumor that he just put his $$$ down and bought what the HRRR is selling.
  14. Bubbler86
    For WSW level snows, I like those "West Central areas" such as elevations around State College.
  15. Bubbler86
    I actually changed the map to Kuch and it is not as much.
  16. Bubbler86
    The new HRRR continues to be one of the snowier models especially elevation. This does not include sleet and is Kuch.
  17. Bubbler86
    If you count sleet like those TT maps, you should exceed that. I do not personally count sleet, but I know the NWS does.
  18. Bubbler86
    17 here. Big thing was a mod-hvy frost. The grass should finally be done growing now. It has lost its green appearance.
  19. Bubbler86
    What did the floor guys say? But seriously, definitely a significant sleet accumulation possible especially northern area of the LSV.
  20. Bubbler86
    For this week, a quick run through the 6Z/0Z models and the GFS, UK and HRRR still have some snow in the LSV. GFS has sig snow in the Northern LSV actually. Rgem/CMC, Nam 3K and 12K, Euro, FV3 have backed the >1" snow line to the very top of the LSV (Pillowish) or totally out of the LSV. The Nam's backed way off for the MSV as well. @Cashtown_Coop, we are "out" on everything except the UK. The Rgem was close for you at 0Z but now is nothing.
  21. Bubbler86
    Wow, you are up early. The Euro dropped its PV into PHO idea. It is still not a great look for snow here (next week) but you are no longer progged to get record temps.
  22. Bubbler86
    I said the same yesterday. Weather may be ok by then assuming an evening concert.
  23. Bubbler86
    Waaa? You are kicking the can?
  24. Bubbler86
    Yep, a white Christmas the non SLP way :-).
  25. Bubbler86
    @Itstrainingtime, ironic we were just talking about this re: the 18Z GFS and Florida.
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