Bubbler86

I think we are advanced enough here to look beyond the zones which are more for non-weather public. Just as likely we get 16" as 1/2" I would think.

6Z GFS has a two-wave setup with 4-6" of snow for much of Eastern PA, except less Southeast where mix and rain come into play, and then another 3-6" of snow on the second wave. First wave is Thursday the 22nd and second wave is mostly Friday afternoon. Surface temps get up to the mid 30 for the Southeast LSV as part of the mix and rain scenario of the first wave as the low goes from Havre De Grace-Philly-NYC. Second wave tries to do a weak/late phase with the displaced PV but that primarily affects areas north of here. May secure a white Christmas for all even if the snow from the first wave gets washed away in the Southeast...though surface temps are still questionable even during the second wave. Low 30's. Not a lot different from 0Z minus some minor west corrections to low placement of first wave and a more amplified second wave causing final totals to be higher where it does not turn to mix or rain.

Straight up 32 here this AM. 38-42 highs seem modeled. Good shopping weather for last full weekend before Christmas day. 6Z GFS has negative lows for the LSV Christmas night. My -1 to -2 departure for MDT is at risk of being "too warm" with the modeled late month temps...though some 40's for highs possible next week.

Bang, bang niang. Lol. First time I heard that.

There is blind shutting going on in the MA. LOL.

I take it back, one thing definitely changed today. @Itstrainingtime went into the PBP hall of fame with a Harry Carrey level call of a modeled Hec's. I did not hear any bangs or booms so maybe something to work on there (Lol) but it was a great performance.

He is mad at the models for ruining the snow, thus the name ruin! LOL

I just think both "sets of data" (ops and ensembles) have their place and are both valuable 3, 5, 7, 10 days out and like you said, not much has changed since yesterday with lots to be resolved. The scenario that gives us a Hec's is truly a hope and pray timing scenario that could have ensembles and op's showing 2 feet until 24 hours before and it still fail to produce. And on a somewhat personal note, I still have some thought that a Hec's the day or two before Christmas will cause a lot of families to miss their loved ones for the holiday so if it happens, it happens...not going to wish against it, but if a frontal passage of 2-4" happens then it is White Christmas and still family time, not going to fret and feel bad. Good to have something to track though

Yesterday the op's were not good enough and we should lean on ensembles....today one or two op's show rain and there is a run on the bank (no offense to anyone just, a general sense). Has much really changed over the last 24 hours?

Jb is as wrong (or right) as anyone else who tries to guess weather a week away. But yea lots of runs to go.

The roller coaster of weather. Probably some hills left to traverse.

Truth.

Joe Calhoun says he is leaning towards a snowy Friday next week. And they really got a lot of snow at CTP. Looks like several inches on the videos I just saw. No nooners today? Maybe I missed. High was a balmy 47 here. 48/49 at CXY.

Do not think the new GFS looks like the Euro or CMC. Pretty much expected so good call Trainer. Small difference in trough position. This is still a CNN level Super Storm on Christmas "weekend"

Congrats gang. LOL. GFS.

Similar through 138...(actually the High is " missing" as we get into the 140's)

If Blizz does not show, you may need to PBP unless someone else gets it. LOL. We do need to get with Blizz's company and make them understand what winter is and what it means to this group and Blizz being around. MA LR thread rippling JB a new one.

Stuff like that (the twitter mets) was what I was complaining about a couple weeks ago. They raise expectation to frequently unsustainable levels.

Yes, that part is very unfortunate. Would cancel Christmas for many people.

Whoa! We are getting a Royalty PBPer today! Love it.

GFS has that low near Miami and Cuba again. Not sure what the tellies have to say about Low's in Cuba.

Quite the ensemble of Op PBP's there.

I only have it to 108.

The NWS/Accuweather info part was surprising. I had not heard that before. They were about to limit us to having the Icon, Euro and JMA only. LOL. Would have been goodbye Nam, GFS, HRRR, etc.