Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Icon shifted NW quite a bit too so something to watch. Least we forget that those of us on the M/D were just skunked by under modeled forcing to our NW.
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Rgem getting a little close south areas.
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There is a recent anti-Kuch theme in the MA, but if I post qpf someone is just going to post Kuch so here it is.
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Icon is a big hit. Pass through SE VA. Slower and more expansive precip field than 12Z. A monster borderline blizzard (winds too low) in NE.
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I asked someone in the know who said the sref is mostly made of up different iterations of the wrf, which is the basis for the Nam in core version wrf-nmm. They consider it the Nam ensembles though they see why someone would consider it 21 different models as they are separate cores so no clear answer there. Chatgpt considers it the Nam ensembles but Chatgpt is wrong a lot.
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Sure but I thought they are a direct correlation to the nam/wrf run in ensemble format in the eyes of NCEP. The purposely keep the GFS out of it.
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Srefs suggested it was going to trend more than that, a bit surprised.
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It is actually a little CFSish so that will give the people reason to slam them both! LOL. It did trend a little the right way and has more precip on shore.
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Nam fairly similar through 51. Would really like to see it recognize some type of intensification on the front.
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We are digging deep, I love it (seriously). The CFS develops the system over the gulf and sends it straight off the Fla coast and OTS. A very souther start for it. Get these predicts up here for posterity's sake post storm
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Very classic look to wallop us and obviously similar to Canada. Really the perfect setup for a quick SECS as there is no pent up warm air push risk, just a slug of moisture pushed this way. If it ends up scoring this one, it will be remembered.
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Last event people treated it like steady eddy or whatever crazy nickname it had. Just part of the entire 12Z suit and a dampening of the euphoria for now.
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I saw .1 and. 2 qpf....much drier than some of the other models like UK, and Gem and even if GFS I think.
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The Euro does not have the major souther snow either. EPS somewhat dry for Sunday as well. A bummer from the EC office today.
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Just this Am. A baseball HOFer
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He just died, an RIP like I usually do and will keep doing.
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As @DDweatherman suggested, a broom will be fine for the Euro snowfall totals.
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Euro exits quite a bit south off the SC coast and speads very light snow into SE and SC PA Sunday afternoon.
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SV Randy beat me to the punch?
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Euro has low on AL/GA border Sat evening.
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I know this is an PA board but 25" on I95 in SC is an amazing panel albeit it just a panel and not a forecast. Pedro says 'Who is going to shovel all this shit"
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Wow
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If it wasn't, the regem would have had some doubt cast on it. I know different resolutions but they should not be too far off 3 days out.
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I think a big part of this was what JB mentioned yesterday....the wave using a different front to form. If the rgem is right though, the alerts need to go our soon. Big difference between 4-5 and 8-12.
