Bubbler86

Agreed!

Maybe tomorrow night!

Thanks! I wanted so much to post but need to share the love.

Check out the rgem.

The paweather 492 Line

I have used up my snow map allotment for the day but the 18Z Nam 12 and 3K made a big adjustment toward the EC, Rgem, HRRR and GFS as to 12 and 18Z models. Measurable east to Harrisburg now for front end Northwestern parts of the LSV have more than 6 hours of snow. Temps on the Nam are close enough to freezing to suggest we may have some school issues with that depiction.

Take it or leave it but it is fairly close to the Euro depiction though not quite as far east...the HRRR's first volley into the front-end forecast. Would not trust the totals but coverage might be a good indicator. Snow is not done in West Central and North Central at this point.

Super late nooners....41. Mentioning because that is a pretty healthy 20 degree rise from this AM.

I think we get some MIller A's each winter however they mostly coincide with environmental conditions that are too warm for a true wall to wall snowstorm here. Sort of adds to the complexity of the issue in that very cold temps here are almost always brought on by deep troughs that work to guide the A's off to our south. We have had a few situations recently where a low came out of the Southeast and stayed to our East, but the cold was fleeting and shallow. It is why the MA LR thread is always blocking, blocking, blocking.

Maybe but the GFS and Euro are low 40's and pretty serene as of today. CMC has the close call Wed.

The next week wave forms quite far south and east and has no mechanism to move it northwest vs. North by North East on the Euro. OTS. But it does have the storm on the positive side. Of interest though is almost the entire west coast raining under one front.

Yep, definitely some momentum for front end today. However, LSV temps still range from 40-50 post front end into Friday so wash away still there unfortunately. Verbatim there are going to be some very icy areas in yards where rain puddles flash freeze.

EC front end. Mostly Western LSV and west in the south moving east a bit as it moves north.

Those are sustained I believe but yea, not super bad. On the subject of wind...on the GFS, the wind chills at MDT slip below 0 shortly after 1PM on Friday then stays below zero, peaking at -8, until Mid-Morning Christmas AM. Those figures are the 10M/33 feet above ground temps.

This is the windiest panel I see on the GFS. Windy but not anything we have not seen other times recently. Almost due west being on the bottom of that GL Low's circulation.

I heard MU is starting to like Thur AM a bit and then saw this Rgem panel. Apologies if anyone posted.

Here is the GFS 24 hour map as of Saturday 7AM (snow from 7AM Friday). The scattered nature of it makes it a bit questionable.

Great post and well thought out points. Not to detract from it but Fanny Sue? LOL. That got me laughing...is she single?

Yep, very rare in "olden times". I did expand the dates back 1850 and it appears this record was first kept as of 1889-1890 season and unbelievable the first record is actual the real record when expanding the selection those 10 years. Feb in 1890. @Itstrainingtime@Festus. This would also bump the total count up to 11 if my eyes counted right. This board must have been a real delight to visit the winter of 1889-1890!

This info appears to be what you are looking for. The records is late January in 2006-2007. It was only back to Jan 2015 when we did not have .1 at MDT until Jan. This output is the earliest and latest when .1" of snow was received at MDT by season. Looks like 10 total Jan's as first snow going back to 1900.

The question from @Festus gave me an idea to go back to the last 2 winter threads for CPA and compare page totals...on page 64 this year and started Nov 30th. Not at all scientific but a good compare as lots of snow would have pushed the page totals up. The threads prior to 2 years ago were done in a different format or started later. 2021-2022 it was Dec 19th when on pages 64 so very close. That thread also started Nov 30th 2020-2021 it was Dec 25th on Page 64 so less activity. Started Dec 1st.

Good call. You have one of the best recall capabilities I have ever seen...whether from memory or records you kept.

Rare time lately where I was almost double digit below you.

500 actually tries to go negative as the system is passing...it closes off briefly while approaching the area.