The latest HRRR, which has trended away from the tongue hitting the LSV, continues that trend at 12Z. Much of the LSV is shut out unfortunately. A little snow to go in the NE with this panel.
28 this AM. Cannot say I like any of the Meso model looks for the LSV. HRRR, Nam, Rgem, Fv3 all mostly miss the LSV with the first warm front's snow and do not get precip here until 11-1 ish tomorrow.
12Z Nam. Blizz is getting pounded and jsut a cloud day here with the risk of the WAA tongue missing some. Temps are just below freezing at this time. Rouville gets in the goods on the next frame though...FWIW 48 hours out. Some mis in far S/E LSV at hour 54.
There was a run of the EPS (the control I think) which showed temps in the -20's in the LSV within the next few weeks...as is the MDT area stays 45 or below for the entire 6Z run with only 3-4 days in the 40's.
If it was going to be cold today, I would appreciate the plowing but as it is, this is mostly so they get to use their toys. Ha. The well-travelled roads are just wet, this is the development roads I am speaking about.
With a low in the mid-west that seems to be our fate either way. No one I saw posted the Icon, can you blame them after how it handled this system, but it snowed for quite some time at 18Z. Dawn to dusk in the LSV.
Your second paragraph is what we saw several times over the last few years....the low went far enough west to have that first wave bypass us down south due to the angle of attack/width of the WAA band.