Bubbler86

I posted and deleted when your post popped on. Everything seemed to change with the first low that started raining on us Wed. Left more energy behind that carved out something in the trough behind it.

12Z GFS has a low scooting under PA next week with rain starting Wed afternoon and running into Friday lunchtime. It is a decent track with no cold air. It is rain up into New England so not even close for us on that one. I mention because it is not a cutter yet we still rain.

Wave/disturbed area of weather coming up the East coast this weekend in conjunction with a cold front (attached to a very north based clipper going through Southern Canada) that looks to stall or fizzle out near us could throw some light/scattered precip back into cold air for the E parts of our area.... something to watch. Not really modeled as such right now though the Fv3 and Rgem are close. The cold front does look to reinforce the chill a bit for Monday with the CMC showing well below normal lows Tue.

They have made Twilight Zone type shows based on that premise (any remote locale in the world including North Pole.)

Just your basic -99 Wind Chill and 130MPH Gust day.

I remember stuff similar to that back in "olden times". Nothing since I have moved back in 2018.

24 and a coating of snow in some places around the yard. Wind blowing it so hard to tell accums. Top 4 event for the season. Two overnight GFS runs had several winter precip opportunities on them but most importantly, no torch except when a cutter goes by for a day or so. 0Z GFS was downright frigid at the end. GEFS supports the no torch.

The opposite of rain over us with low in SE VA on the Euro. Bizzaro world.

Feels sort of like last year. Like seeing Ned Ryerson over and over.

And like I commented earlier, that 47 is lower than the Rgem and EC show now. Quick rise. On the flip side, seeing some single digits again for Friday night (LSV) on the meso's.

LSV zones have a slight chance of snow showers tonight and some meso's show some streamers reaching the LSV tomorrow daytime as well.

It is certainly a fair assessment if having to make a forecast now, but I am not seeing any crazy torch looks so keeping hopes. Certainly, no signs of below average temps for any long periods of time over the next 2-3 weeks. Just more of what we have been dealing with. We just finished the third warmest Jan ever but the temp never hit 60. Stuck in the middle ground.

12Z Euro has the Super Bowl Sunday Storm Cut initially before being blocked and moving through Central VA. The lack of cold air already in place with not enough high support means most of the East Coast is toasted too much despite a low taking a track that would "usually" give us snow in mid-Feb. It is nothing like the GFS so just more day to day changing as yesterday the Euro had an East coast snow at the end of its run.

I need to get a new mower this year, so I am closely watching the timing and sales. LOL. Euro has a high of 30ish on Sat and mid 50's on Sunday for this weekend. Cold retreats quickly.

I also agree with the caveat that I would like the chance of snow in the future during Dec-March. If it is not going to snow then weather like now (low 20's WC) is simply not comfortable. I do also fear for plants sprouting early. The second day of Feb is too early for Spring plants.

Speaking of cold, Nooners is Mostly sunny and 34 but winds sustained in the mid teens making the Wind Chill in the low 20's.

You, and those that jokingly said it will be gone in 6 hours, had the right idea but congrats Bermuda instead. The potential system is in part squashed by a stronger than previously forecast cold push/High. Quite cold for SB Sunday though. Ha

There were some charts posted by Don S, on the MA forum, which showed a continued downward trend to both snow amounts and the "snow season" at DCA over the last 100+ years. Information like that is hard to debate as much as CC may be. I definitely do not think winter is done for the MA or PA going forward in time (years) but it would be hard for me to argue that the average snow season/cold (avg temps) when looked at per decade or longer would snap back to what was seen 50/100 years ago based on that Don S Tweet. I think there may be more than some credence to your thought that some of our recent (last 20 years) run of big snows could possibly be attributed to some warming in a similar manner to people who say the melting polar cap will make ocean waters cooler.

All the people that cancelled receive their comeuppance from a furry critter. LOL

22 this AM. 2 Eastern PA snowstorms on the GFS at 6Z.

No different than the people who said winter is over. A healthy balance.

The trainer and MJS are sitting pretty for this one but you are still in the game.

Bubbler86...leading the way (daytime crew) away from this winter cancel negativity! :-). With a dose of reality sometimes. Temps still questionable.

1PMer 33 and sunny here.