Bubbler86

Chilly 25 this AM. Looks like scattered snow throughout the state...not sure if all reaching the ground.

There is a WSW out now within an hour or so of Lanco. :-)

Circled below would really piss me off. Using TT on purpose to illustrate winter weather vs. just snow.

The average temp so far this month, at MDT, is 41.1. That is only .3 over the Feb average temp that ended at 40.8.

Rouzerville-Mulch Topper USA. Light snow right now. High today a very BN 35.

35 and light snow commencing. Lanco continues to be real close to some real snow Tue AM. HRRR has it and others are close.

Good to see someone in our forum with a WSW,

That is crazy low despite the totals so far.

No matter what happens in the next few weeks, this winter sucked hard. There is a convo on the MA board about it not being cold and it has some merit though the whys are not apparent, IMO. I am still going to enjoy watching the models try to forecast the rest of the month.

24 this AM with lowering clouds.

I did not see it so you will have to share :-)

It seems some areas Northeast of us are going to have "not so bad" records for snow this season because of the late season come back. The Mid-Atlantic is going to be a big loser if we do not get one of the ITT's over the next 2 weeks.

Like I mentioned before, the pattern is supportive of a cutter and a ridge of High Pressure temporarily setting up in the south east. This will turn the flow for us from the South West so it is going to be AN for a few days.

High of 38 here today. Looks like MDT got to 43.

Glass half empty on bad info is just bad all around. That chart I just posted....in 1900 the temp did not go above 20 on March 17th. Talk about "throw another log on the fire".

LOL, I took his post as being right. I should have checked. I see the normal today for MDT is 49 (rounded). That means the forecast and modeled high temps at MDT are well BN every day over the next 5. Speaking of normal, it is not right now here. Wind chill of 18 and downright miserable out.

From what I have seen, the normal NWS Zone forecast very much follow modeled temps. I think it is rare that an NWS met deviates much from modeled temps outside 24-36 hours in advance when some meso/local forecasting skill is shown. Right now, your local NWS forecast shows near 50 for the 16th and near 60 for the 17th because most models are showing a system cutting to the west. Prior to that it is below or near normal. A few days ago, my zone said snow for tomorrow, now it says rain...models changed their depiction of the system.

The models show colder temperatures. Could they be wrong? Sure. The temps are forecast to be warmer for 2-3 days due to a low cutting to our west. Over this winter, LSV actual temps have pretty consistently been going above models temps.

30 this AM with winds gusting into the 30's already.

After that cutter you referenced above, it looks quite cold as of now. Fair to question anything on the longer range though.

Lanco is nammed.

That is the second or third time you have said that :-)

PSU got the digital crayons out and drew several maps to depict why ITT4 is the best chance this month.

Final tallies at 10:1 show the 25" line extending well into NE PA and the 12" Line extending back into the northern areas of this forum (pr right beside them). About 1/2-1" on average in Lanco. For Northern PA a few inches of that is today/tonight.