Bubbler86

Assuming we get the moderate accums the models progged and we are hoping for, roads tomorrow are still going to be ugly outside major stuff. High near 20 is not going to promote much melting.

Getting some roof stickage at Ski Liberty now. I bet some of the skiers are loving this (not sure if everyone likes it snowing while sking re: getting wet.)

One has to take it out of the total qpf but not changing that you and I get 4" or maybe 5. Might be more on grass though.

We have dropped to 33 so will not be long out here before real accums start in earnest. We are at least .1 of qpf into this though.

Not much at Liberty yet. It is coming but we are in wait mode for road accums. Roofs are still just wet there.

Not here but it is coming down so hard we are soon going to see mounting accums elsewhere. What is your surface temp?

34 with Sn + here. Just starting to see some grass and mulch whitening. No roofs yet.

The good snow stickage line (roads, etc) has moved east a bit to the NW corners of Franklin, Cumberland and into Perry county, south of pillow and out East. It is coming. Easters are lucky they have a better shot at coastal influence this evening when the line should be well past.

Sure but we have wasted a half to one full inch now. It is snowing quite well. I am not changing my predict here. Still near 4"

The freezing line has not moved much yet on the meso analysis. The cold is coming but yea we need the qpf to stay around for it (down here.). What did not happen was much cold air being pulled down yet. I am confident it happens but we are indeed wasting accums right now.

Moderate borderline sn plus here but still above freezing so wasting a bit now. We would probably have a half inch at this point if colder.

We have reached the stage where if one posts a model and it is bad, retorts come back about nowcasting, but if good like this is for Lanco and York down to near Adams, people rejoice. Nam12 and 3 hammer Lanco

What did I "Tell you" LOL. Edit oh the snow storm on the 31st.

Ditto here right now. All rain has mixed out but it is 34 degrees.

I should have clarrified that my Rap comment was about IMBY and near Mitch.

It is not even snowing up at Penn Mar. Just came down the hill. There are probably some flakes mixed ibn. Not worried about it, this stuff is bonus anyway.

Yea, and if you look a the radar from the HRRR and Rap, the Rap is much more in tune with reality right now. The rap does not drop a lot of snow as it doe snot have much from a coastal CCB but just a comment to show the HRRR is did not initialize well so hard to take its numbers too seriously. Still light rain here

I hate to model bash but those that say it cannot be used for qpf totals may be right....but I think it can be used for location of qpf, at least considered.

I bet we get a meso discussion for the area where these earlier returns are forming right now (in PA.) Also nice to see the blue circled area filling in the dry slot a bit (In VA).

12Z HRRR was not great south of us as a dry slot and low movement from N NC put the fall line right along the M/D.

This fact is why I do not totally get any fretting about weather in Feb. We have had almost wall-to-wall winter temp wise but it has not been fully conducive to snow as most of us sit BN right now and the oppressively dry cold temps/next week are not helpful for snow as progged. If one wants snow we need to mix up the equation and and hope for some good timing.

The low, very weak, is in N NC right now which is a nice nod to the models who did not fall for the Canadian (and early HRRR) tricks of having in it WV. 12Z HRRR shows light rain/mix changing to all snow across the southern parts of the forum 11AM-noonish. I believe the low position is perfect for us as dynamic cooling and the approaching front (referenced by Mitch) will cool us down just in time. Would be better for the Northern part of the forum if the low was a bit more amped but then Lanco would suffer.

The Nam 12 has not been able to show qpf properly for this system. Beyond my salary table to understand why. 3k has been fine with qpf depictions.

First small area of qpf is rain here. 35 degrees. Radar looks fine to me. If we did not have modeling to know what is progged, it would not.

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