Bubbler86

There is the day 14 MAJOR snow storm on the euro, otherwise it was a bad 12Z considering it and the Gem.

Euro is going to be more GEM like, lagging behind in pressing the boundary down over us for Feb 6th. A sig step back from 0Z. State College went from 13 to 37 for the morning of the 6th.

Just had a gust to 53.

UK with a tip of the hat to the GEM if one is keeping score.

Nooners...46 with highest gust so far coming in around 40. GFS has a snowstorm possibility in the 330's but...330's.

Gem does not love the HP push as much as the GFS and Icon so it is still a warmer system for next week. No obscene heat like yesterday but AN just the same.

That is some really bad spelling. LOL.

They are out of the south at the surface but above mostly westerly. 850's are lost in my area for one panel but you keep them over your way on this run. Surface stays in the upper 20's for the whole event.

12Z GFS does not allow the second system later next week, to cut up like it did at 6Z so just a singular winter storm next week on this run.

It better be good otherwise, I will pivot to talking about how good the Washington Capitals have been :-)

With all the guidance showing something around this period, this is turning into a moderate possibility.

GFS has one well AN normal day, Monday, before High Pressure pushes the boundary back south of us again heading into mid-week and potential opportunities. Impressive cold covering all of Canada. Not on the slate yet, but a phasing system could tap that.

Icon starts off the 12Z runs showing ice in our next Window of the 5th/8 days out. Do not have soundings to know where it is melting but 540 line is north of the precip..

No safe place on the highway!

I think the theme right now is that there are no sustained AN high temps on any progs this Am....ensembles included. So the door is open for timing events. As others alluded to, a war is on. Normal highs in Mid Feb are back into the 40's.

From mid teens to mid 40's. 15 N of Myerstown, 41 just SE.

CMC did drop the boundary back to well south of us...for now. GFS has 3 winter storms on its run, like Blizz mentioned the Euro and the CMC have the one 9 days out as well. Low of 27 here but up to 34 now.

That is why some enjoy the model disco, watching the magic at work.

In my opinion, at most only 10-15 percent of our total posts are OT so one should not worry about that unless the forum Presidents come in with an edict. I agree with you that the sense of not knowing has to be tough on anyone involved in this situation (weather and otherwise) and to top it off, at least specific to people working in Met, they have to deal with a largely ignorant general public who mocks them with jokes about having jobs in which they can excel while being wrong so often. I would equate public weather forecasting with people who work in IT support in having to deal with disgruntlement when things are not working, then little in the way of acknowledgement any other time. I truly hope things settle down in the near term as it relates to Federal employees.

18Z GFS still trying the over the top system it has been advertising for days now. Would not be overly cold but something to keep an eye on

That is a debated topic but I would opine that as long as the majority of the guidance is not showing the SER taking over the eastern US, it should not be a conclusion that it will happen. The GEFS really showed the ridge pushing heights up over much of the East US but the AI's and EPS have not yet. Gem (and GEPS) was obviously hyper ridge.

AI's not see the SER being the dominant feature as of yet. 6Z GFS AI has light snow on Feb 6th. This does not appear to be far off form the 12Z Euro AI.

Up to 48 here.