Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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.12" in the bucket now.
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GFS wanting to attack us with all systems in the Short and Mid Term. All sloppy over to rain.
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GFS keeping with the ice storm next Wednesday...switching to rain mid way through.
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Even 1/4 to 1/2" is very welcome right now. Keeps thing stable for more precip hopefully to come.
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My understand is that it is tied to a type of NBM/a mean of models type situation that they then can manually adjust. This is especially true for longer range zones re; Paweathers snow showers. I do not think any met entered snow showers.
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Model wise, most of the rain does not come until this afternoon. Most of the energy is still in Indiana.
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I think that as more and more WFH arrangements go away the spread becomes more prominent. From 2020-2023, spread was much less of an issue.
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3K is 10PM and HRRR 11PM in your area. Rgem is 7AM tomorrow morning but am discounting that a bit.
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Mesos have rain well into the evening with still .5-1" to go.
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Take Care and feel better (both of you.) The flu and Covid are still both spreading around the area.
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40 and a ground wettner so far...hardly measurable. Snow piles survived so far. LSV colder than I thought they would be at this time. Low to mid 30's on Wunder.
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He is a warminsta. I miss a lot of his posts but I rarely see him leaning cold. He had nothing to tout for weeks. Lol. Now there is a battle of model driven data and and he has place at the table.
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Several Chuck references so going to add one more thing...his posts are spot on in acknowledging that indexes are just as readily/likely modeled incorrectly as actual surface weather predicts.
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Pretty strong indicators that cold air is going to dump in the east in the next 7 -10 days. Could be wrong and cold could mean no snow but not seeing a torch right now outside short periods of when storm tracks bring warm fronts through early in Feb.
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His info is as model driven as the progs showing winter precip. Either could be right. I think Chuck admits that. Disco is good though.
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A recipe for big precip! Yes, I thought of it not be ralph/steve b but a buckle up is a buckle up!
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Buckle up has been uttered in the ma thread. Makes it a good day.
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Sounds good, Chief!
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MDT breaks the Min Max record on Feb 11th on the 18Z GFS. I truly thought the "earth shattering" cold was done but progs today have piqued my interest. Again, not great for snow. Potential winter storm gathering at hour 282.
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Quite a bit of rain after the winter storm on the 18Z GFS so would do a lot to help drought numbers, then by the following Saturday, highs stay at or below freezing all day as the cold press is on. Too much of a good thing as progged. Suppressive and way below normal. But exciting times when it pulls away (maybe).
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This is after a decent period of sleet. It does warm up post ice so its effects would be limited a bit by that.
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18Z GFS starts us off as light snow on the 5th transitioning to an all out ice storm as the thermal column moves north but CAD keeps us below freezing at the surface and a bit above.
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ChatGPT gave me this info including Marysville back when the soil was cracking.
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@Ruin
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Hard to update when it does not snow/rain much. It will not go backwards much in the winter due to the lack of drying heat but D2 mid to late winter is not ideal...but rain tomorrow is helpful.
