Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Some people who say ignore the nam (which it is wrong a lot) are all over loving it if they like what it shows. 4 major plane crashes in less than 3 weeks now.
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GFS drops almost 1/2" here and .1" on Canderson and Mitch (or close) with 500 pass. Haha
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GFS does have light snow into SW PA at 45. Not a major difference but something,
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Don't be sore just because the Nam gives me a white Wednesday! :-)
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Not many changes on GFS through 36.
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This got a chuckle, the Ventusky weather model app has a big addition that will help forecast accuracy. They now offer the Nam..as of 2/15/2025! LOL. https://my.ventusky.com/guide/news/high-resolution-nam-model-now-available-for-more-detailed-weather-forecasts-36/
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Although the precip field did not change much the Euro AI's presentation of the low moved north and the strength is up a few mb's.
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It is through 48 on pivotal and it is a smidge south. Just not a huge fan of global models for a situation 36 hours away.
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Does not look like the Icon or rgem are joining the party though getting a bit late for Icon.
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We will see you around 8:30PM!
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Did you notice it got WAA snow over us/prior to any tug from the west? Would need a HUGE adjustment for us to get snow from a coastal but I would take 1-2" of white powder with a little more bump.
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No reason if you have the time. Making absolute statements about it is no good! LOL. (People saying it is definitely this or definitely that)
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Plows down for far south PA. Looks like Dt's first call.
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I agree, I see no torch but I think we have highs in the 50's and 60's before the month is out. I am not at all calling Spring but think we do have some temp variation...more so than we did through much of winter. One thing I like to look at the ensembles for is mean temps and the EPS and GEPS are pretty much AN straight through (for highs) after this week. I do not think we get to 45-50 every single day, the variability is what I am hoping for in saying we "should" have some precip chances.
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I had commented above that I think we start getting more precip chances soon (could very well be rain or snow) and that is predicated more on the old fashioned, though scientifically solid, premise that as more drastic temp changes and differences become more prevalent in late winter/early spring, precip will follow. I do not think it is wall-to-wall cold over the next 2-3 weeks.
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I think we have at least one system with some decent qpf before the month is out. Decent would be 1/4" or more.
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Well except for a very shallow wave that drops 1 to at the most 2" of snow for Southern PA next Saturday, the Euro is a snoozer. The cutter later next week even manages to skip much of this forum leaving little precip. Stark difference from the copious qpf GFS. Things get interesting after 300 but...after 300.
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If she is going to stay tied to the EC, expect a second guess map soon (down)
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It seems when we get "busy" about 1/2 dozen people from Lanco pop up. Hardees-Har-Har!
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Great story, are you sure Carl is not one of the older posters here?
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Hahah. On paper this matches more what happened this past weekend. GEM has a warmish clipper around the same time so the confidence of major changes is quite high.
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Event two next week. It will change shortly but for viewing
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It is not cold going into it either. But is our next trackable event IMO.
