Bubbler86

18Z GFS sends first stage of Wed ice storm mostly south of us. Some light frozen new M/D line. But kicks in Thur with freezing rain.

Like modeled and forecasted. LOL.

For once models are targeting the LSV with the starting WAA of a storm coming our way...here are the Nam totals for snow before Ice kicks in Wed

So far the high here today has been 25. Impressive. Looks like snow though I know I am a bit too far south for the party tonight. MDT has a shot to stay below freezing today as well.

I know there is disdain for off topic here but I am dealing with the worst trade in NBA history (as of now) so hard to be happy posting. But really did not mean to offend, I was sort of defending MU and saying he is probably not happy.

I am sorry, was not trying to offend. I remembered the wall-to-wall term. At that time, and even as soon as two days ago, Feb looked middling at best but as of this moment it looks very cold. Whether it snows or not is always up for interpretation but someone quoted that MU was unhappy (joking I assume) about the Hog and I figured he was probably unhappy because he loves warm and warm Feb looks a lot less likely now than it did a few days ago,

I went back and looked and it was actually not him, it was this post and interpretation so sorry if I suggested it was him. I actually did not read what he said at that point in Jan to suggest your take on but my thought is right now it appears to be that Feb has a very good chance of being BN so I figured he was not happy with the turn of events. It is just a model run but if the GFS were right we would be a good 3-5 degrees BN when hitting the last third of Feb. Only one high out of the 15 panels is AN.

He said something about wall to wall warmer/not cold for Feb, just going from other posts, so he is not going to like how that has changed. March is too far out to be guesstimating IMO.

Gross.

No way Ruin said the word "nice" unless it was in a sentence such as "The NWS said I would get to 24 last night and I got to 16. Nice job guys"

Not much jibber jabber about the snow tonight? Could see a decent amount North of the lower part of the LSV. 1-2" @pawatch

Definitely a major positive. Just remember a year or two where constant means were being posted in the MA thread, some very high, and we hardly had any snow. But as of NOW the idea of an early spring is out the door. Too much evidence to the contrary.

You did not ask me but I remember some means that were very high within the last 5 years (and not sure which model) as these maps are some of the reason people get down on LR forecasting. I remember seeing 6-8" means south of us. Not bad news though!

Yea, a surprisingly cold morning. Most of the lakes and ponds are still frozen here as well. Not cold enough for walking but still covered.

The "weather" in Dallas is very Blue right now. People don't even feel Luka warm about it.

He/She is staring the obvious in the face with the LR upper level maps. Talking about winter, 11 degrees this Am as well. Finally beat MDT which got down to a mean average temp dropping 16.

Yea it is like a dance to see if we can show well enough for snow but not showboat where the girl walks away. Either way cold and dry or cold or cool and snow/ice is better than 70's in Feb IMO. Apologies to Voyager.

If it were not for the wind., it was a shorts day.

All things considered, I am really happy with modeling and what people who follow teleconnections (I like to stay more in MR and SR) are saying for the next 2-4 weeks. Happy being stated from someone who wants more winter weather. Those progs that showed several days in a row of 60's and 70's have been pushed aside for now. Some op progs still show some outputs of 50's or 60's in between cold spells but the second half of Feb currently looks like this to most people skilled in LR forecasting. Sucks for energy bills but good for discussion and tracking. I still think Feb has a better chance to be BN vs AN. This map below is record setting cold for mid Feb.

Plus with the current interest rates. I would rather pay cash and live in downtown McSherrystown vs pay interest. Real Estate has to cool down at some point. I saw the development you spoke of. Utilities sticking up on empty lots, etc. Think I saw a house or two built or being built. I got lost today trying to avoid the traffic. Saw an entrance for the Vulcan quarry and thought I was on the other side...did not realize there is more than one entrance.

One interesting thing I noted was that rumor has it the female pilot was managing the flight but the back and forth with the ATC was a male pilot. I have not heard yet that they have released the internal convos on the copter. Watching the hi-res view of the copter ramming the plane is truly like a theatrical movie thing. Sad.

My wife wanted to stop at that fancy pants crochet/knitting shop in town...I like McSherrystown. Good old fashioned bones. I am sure there are a ton of new houses outside the main street stuff. I am perfectly fine overlooking the large Ringgold Valley below me where I currently sit. LOL. I like the conveniences of Hanover but not the hustle and bustle. I went home via 30 and noted New Oxford still had some Christmas Decorations up. Maybe the maintenance team is afraid to navigate the traffic circle.

I thought my NWS zone said falling to near 31 today but stayed in the 40's and upper 30's all day in Hanover and McSherrystown. Wind was pretty brutal though.

In what stands as a solid sign summer is still far off, we got clipped by a small 10 min torrential downpour yesterday to give us .65 for the day. During summer that would be a miss.