Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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24 hours later. Will call this the wed system
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GFS still has the Saturday/Sunday Ice to rain storm. Tue misses well to the south (8 days out).
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Below freezing about 850 and down during the GFS sleet storm
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GFS is a sleet bomb. Not all that much frz.
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Unless the Nam or Fv3 is right. Would need stuff to fly tonight. Could start before dawn on Wed.
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HH GFS has the WAA surge streak but it is VERY minimal and to the west.
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It seems to be in several suites in varying levels but nothing like that namming. Would need a WAA or WSW for Wed and another one for Thu.
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I am not going to bring out the Cheez-its guy pic again but...yea. I will mention him.
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57 for the high here. A bit of a quick torch. Still banging mid 50's.
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Fv3 has that streak too but the Nam streak is an HH namming. Temps 25-28 during snow.
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I do not want it but would rather be in the know than not. This PV split has gained national news notoriety now.
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Check out that WAA streak. Pretty incredible Also would make this a 24-36 hour event.
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Just using the Euro as an example it shows 2" as the total QPF for you over the next 2 weeks. Definitely a good start to Feb but not a drought buster. We should receive about 1.5" during that time so just a little better than what is normal/what our min should be.
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High level guess, we will need about 4-5" in Feb before they adjust it "too much". Average is a little under .75" per week and so need to double that each week to start making meaningful dents.
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Very long ranger but the PV Split being ballyhooed about. Near zero at MDT at 7PM.
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Even the Hot Euro is still signaling ICE on Thursday thought verbatim surface temps are 30-32 in the LSV.
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Storm 3 next week and beyond but out past 300 now.
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A bit too much of a cold thing for next Tue on the CMC. No real mechanism to draw the snow up our way and boundary is down in Central and Southern VA vs. N VA like the GFS (which does show snow and ice via two pieces of energy.)
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Someone commented this AM that this frz maps are often over done or only apply to trees which I think is true...but still posting the data. This would require a WSW. Not as impressed with the GFS which ends in warmer temps limiting the potential power line issues.
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Tad north of me. Close but probably no snow for me in that map...or somewhere between.1 and .4.
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Just for fun
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GFS loading up again for the 15th or 16th.
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Valentines Day smack down. (PBP not a forecast)
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Incoming
