Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Second slug looks a little together but still not area wide. More showers.
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Nam12 keeps much of the first part of the Ice storm south of this forum. A little sleet up into the LSV but that initial slug misses. Gets Lanco on the way by.
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Harrisburg and Lanco getting pummeled at hour 45.
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That snow on the Nam is something else. Would be one of those stories you tell people about how it snows 2-4" in one area of the LSV and none in the other but it was all in a fairly skinny line. It is a school canceler for some areas.
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Fv3 is south.
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Plus it is the LR HRRR just surprised in its location. Fv3 and another suite had both you and I getting snow Wed but no where near the Nam 12 show,
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Big FWIW, but the white WAA streak on the 0Z HRRR is mostly SE of PA.
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So much potential softball is starting late this year.
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Yea, another good point. Heavy vs light rain.
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The question is, if it raining at 29 or 30 during daytime in Feb, are there any real issues? 30ish is pretty high for freezing rain during the day. Sleet bomb is a total different story. That will readily lay at 30ish.
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Nws zone says low of 39 at Harrisburg tonight. Currently 36.
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5 storms in 10 days (not all snow and one south) or if you start with Feb 11 then 3 storms in 5 days, yes.
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I think it is assumed surface will be cold enough. Once CAD breaks it will topple quickly (unless it does not). Next one
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Assuming that is right at 2M? How high does Cad hold? 1-2" of sleet is just a winter day while 1/2" of frz is a risk for big issues.
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It is still 49 here. Was super warm over here today. Some backyards probably made it into the 60's.
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Will call this the Thur system
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24 hours later. Will call this the wed system
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GFS still has the Saturday/Sunday Ice to rain storm. Tue misses well to the south (8 days out).
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Below freezing about 850 and down during the GFS sleet storm
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GFS is a sleet bomb. Not all that much frz.
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Unless the Nam or Fv3 is right. Would need stuff to fly tonight. Could start before dawn on Wed.
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HH GFS has the WAA surge streak but it is VERY minimal and to the west.
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It seems to be in several suites in varying levels but nothing like that namming. Would need a WAA or WSW for Wed and another one for Thu.
