Bubbler86

I was in Adams county most of the day and they are not even pre-treating the roads which was surprising....just due to the WWA. With that said it is still near 40 throughout the LSV right now. Not a normal setup for icing in a few hours other than the cold front/flash freeze situations.

Lancaster Monday Snows on Nam...

I guess for me it has to be under 30 at the surface for ice to a really accumulate on the street during the day especially if it is raining with any kind of intensity. But not trying to downplay it just do not think it is anything, especially for the LSV, that significantly slows down people or traffic. My opinion is less about models and more about time of year and temps starting out above 32 and relying on evap cooling for an ice event. I think the Monday evening rush hour has the potential to be worse especially the Eastern part of the LSV.

I am not going to look through all the short range models in lieu of just looking at my favorite the Nam. At no point on Sunday are the surface temps nearly cold enough for freezing rain to be a factor on the roads in the LSV. They are a good 5 degrees too high especially with it being daytime and the above normal temps much of this week. With that being said Voyager commented that he would be going through areas further North East but even in those areas, at noon on Sunday, are foretasted by the Nam to be too high for major road freezing issues. Models could be wrong so if someone is forecasting that then so be it but in my opinion Monday late is better time for winter weather due to the retreating temps.

Some people do not agree with this but the weather really has been fairly warm and the roads are generally not going to be overly cold. Can snow lay on them? Sure....will freezing rain at temps of 30-32 be an issue during day light? Not so sure.

I personally do not think Sunday is going to be that bad for for most areas south of i80. Monday is still up for grabs. Would not surprise me to see some LSV locales get 2-3" of snow Monday. Euro is all rain for Sunday.

North half of PA gets nam'ed. ULL goes a bit south and all of Pa is nam'ed. Pipeline of moisture off the coast back into the cold air...coastal far enough away to not steal all the "thunder"

Happy Thanksgiving. We have had a gust to 46 so far. That is higher than anytime during the great wind storm of 2019 last winter. Looking for some decent snow showers out here today.

Having the nam on board makes me think our first travellers advisory (go old school) of the year is on tap sat nite.

Along the themes of a PBP, the EC continues the theme of Saturday being totally dry to the point that even night is fairly dry but nice area of mix/frz Sunday morning

Nam is suggesting Saturday daytime will just be dry now. This whole thing is slowing down.

The Bain Train pulls into the station.

Another year, more model qpf differences. LOL. Here is the Pivotal EC Accumulated Snow map. EDIT-Just noticed you were posting ensembles, my mistake.

All that digital snow is gone 6 hours later. The models continue to drive the ULL too far north ...central VA is not good enough for at least the southern 2/3 of PA with these much above normal temps in place plus it places the developing coastal too far north. We need a Carolina Cruiser of a low to cause a real vacuum to suck in cold air fast after the WAA or most here will just see rain Sunday. Not much rain at that.

You will make @Voyager wreck the bus with maps like this.

When I checked the Roomba was sleeping and the cat was cleaning up so you are running a tight ship there.

Yea, those things are great being hooked to the internet and all. I just checked your thermostat also and it is on 71 now! :-).

I like weather extremes good or bad but it feels great honestly About to turn the A/C on as it is up into the 70's in the house. LOL

On another note it is 65 degrees right now.

Snow wise it was a tears and sobs Waaaahhhh. A little icy at one point but a general cold rain storm. UL low traverses the area too far north for the questionable conditions.

Upcoming is the most important run of the EC in two seasons! Is this going to be a deform and/or WAA weekend or will it end up being a WAAAHHH weekend for snow lovers?

And as if the EC reads the forums it brings some here a front end thump this weekend. More to the Northeast after this map.

As I listen to my neighbor mowing his grass I cannot help but hope the EC soon switches tunes and shows some real winter weather in the long range. I see some chilly temps but no real storm threats as the persistent weakness in the atmosphere continues to go back to our west allowing storms to track through the Midwest up into Canada or reform on the coast too far north for our liking.

Here as well so you are not alone. It is pouring rain and we are up at 800' while the valleys to my east are accumulating snow.

Yep. Some. A little sleet or Freezing rain in N Central PA but closest snow is up in the Lakes. Here is GFS 12Z total QPF through Sunday Am.