Bubbler86

It was about 400 feet away an hour ago and down under 200 now. LOL. I feel like I should be blaring a fog horn or something. Interesting weather during our "winter" of 2019-2020.

Yep, my own little slice of summer. Though the temps have dropped and the fog is creeping back down the mountain now.

@Cashtown_Coop we were touching a bit on micro climates a couple weeks back, with the ice in your back yard and 40's and 50's in mine, and I just spent the day in Thurmont, Cascade, and Pen Mar mired in fog and mid 40's and arrived home to sunny and low 60's. Just a couple miles apart. This pic tells it all. My development is the white group of houses just to the left of the silo at 1/4 way up the mountain and just a few hundred further up the temps drop 10-15 degrees in what looks like the top of a marshmallow sundae when taken a mile back away from my place.. Cool and sad at the same time (why I rarely get ice storms).

Well my early Jan predict of some snow is turning into yet another cutter. The zonal flow has not materialized as hoped.

Was on Sideling Hill range east of Breezewood and it was 63 and more that an hour in the sun would have produced a burn on sensitive people. Great day to be outside.

Very favorable track on the 0Z Euro in early January. Just need to find the cold....about 10 degrees worth.

I second this especially cold and windy...we need the cold for snow but single digits and no snow is worse than 50 and no snow, in my opinion.

Last year around this time we were saying the weather reminded us of Early October so that is a move in the right direction I guess.

57 here and feels great for the day. Day started off in the 20's so quite a large range.

Eyeballin' it the gfs has been much better as of late as to the 5 to 7 day range.

Ho, ho, ho....get your shovels ready Jan 1-5 young man. (If HM can do it so can I).

You too. Like others have said at least it will be good travel weather. Stressful dealing with snow and visiting family. I noticed the GFS was showing near 60 (LSV) a week from today but back to colder temps after that. This is still a lot better than last December and think we see a decent chance of something wintry Jan 1-5.

I went from Gettysburg to Fayetteville today and the scene starting around Adams County Winery up the hill and over to almost Caldeonia is simply amazing. The sun was out so the ice encased trees were shinning in full brilliance. Even more impressive was that the ice was not melting despite the sun. It was 39 before the climb and 31 as I passed along the top of the ridge. 8 degree drop in just 5-10 min.

Yea, I hardly hear anyone say "farm show weather" anymore. It would be good to get that train back on track.

Your beer should be stocked up regardless, right :-). I am going to make a prognostication that I have seen enough in the MR runs trying to make it snow here, Jan 1st-5th, that I think we all get accumulating snow then though if you look at the EC right now it is cutter, cutter, cutter. Other guidance has vacillated back and forth on trying to set up a more zonal flow or even east coast trough in that period and if that were to happen we are in line for something.

It was what I believe to be the biggest statewide snow producer in modern Florida history. 1977 may be up there as well. Regardless of my Florida connections I still find snow/frozen down there an interesting thought process especially accumulating like in 1993.

I live quite close to your climo being just over the state line, into PA, about two miles N/E of Ringold but about 200 feet down from you at 805 feet for my elevation. I can get to over 2000+ feet in just minutes though if I need to feel better. High Rock and Mount Quirauk are visible out my front door. Ha. You have a great point as it pertains to their ability to win in what I would call a more zonal regime because the southern 2/3 of that forum will very frequently end up on the wrong side of the boundary so my insistence that wringing hands over pattern is less worrisome up here. But I still believe the end result of said wringing is so often wrong, and quite frequently very wrong, that it is counter productive. If I were a teen and just getting interested in weather that MR/LR thread would push me away from it. And many people mix up the discussion between apparent and pattern weather talk. Outside the zonal/boundary chances people south of DC need a pressing then slightly retreating high to have a decent chance of a snow storm. That could happen in almost any pattern and is indeed more likely to have a positive effect in prime climo. If you want a KU then we need a block but otherwise I feel it all comes down to timing of the moisture interacting with said HP and luck is the final determiner. Pattern talk is anyone's right but I think it is weighed WAY too much as to what it is worth.

And just to finalize my thought I said that if the MR models are right the first third of meteorological winter is gone. I guess I did not need to post it but after listening to tons of "HM has his shovel" posts over the last two weeks I felt like a reality check was needed and to point out how wrong the twitter heads ended up being. I guess in the end that post was an anti long range forecasting post. Have a good Saturday.

I think some people use these boards as a bit of an emotional crutch. I am guilty of it on occasion when it shows snow and I know I have to travel. I will try to keep those posts to a minimum :-). I do like posts from @Voyager though as he is here looking for info to help him do his job and I do not see him being negative as opposed to wanting more info to help be safe.

I am not mad at you. I am still struggling to figure out how I am considered "warm" though. :-). I rarely will post a negative no snow for you in immediate response to someone who thinks otherwise but I sometimes post original content stating my opinion and I find blown warm forecasts or grossly warm by average periods interesting re: yesterday we got to 41 here which was a big bust on the high side. I love snow storms and I love sniffing out or discussing events where models are wrong...warm or cold. I am on the west side of the South Mountain Range so we will warm here faster than people just over the hill from me like @Cashtown_Coop. I actually keep his weather station link handy to compare. There are still ice covered tree limbs 2 miles to my east Blue Ridge Summit.

Hey Blizz, Just so you take into consideration that some of the meh posts are right. This week you contradicted a comment I made about posters in the MA that were saying things like Mid-Late January (Red Tagger Millville openly threw out the first half of winter whether you consider that Mid January or late January). If you are just looking for posts that are positive then you will never like me as I am trying to post and discuss the weather good or bad :-). In their defense I will say that people throwing out time periods a month past the time of the post are obviously going to be wrong most of the time but they are entitled to post as much as anyone else.

18Z GFS has the storm but is missing the CAD/High off the New England Coast.

And to add to your thought I think there are two lines of discussion. Apparent weather and patterns. My "not taken nicely" comment about the models punting the last two weeks of December was an apparent weather discussion and strictly based on specific model output while the people commenting we are done until Mid Jan, in the MA thread, were talking patterns. That is where I think people get lost too much...too many think bad pattern means we are screwed when in reality it snows in bad patterns just usually not a KU snow. However when you see all MR models showing almost no cold anywhere in the CONUS over a one to two week period you can usually extrapolate the apparent weather a bit.

I am sure there are posts somewhere saying the Atlantic is helping us make that snow.