Bubbler86

Early 12Z runs have it going from a developing low going under us to more of a Miller B like situation with the resulting transferred low OTS. Frustrating that MR model runs continue to change so drastically.

Funny but I did not see one mention in the MA thread about the NAM but only looked at two threads. I was up at Cowans Gap today and some of the smaller trees are indeed budding there as well. Crazy. Temps have been mild but not "that mild". Edit-Just saw they have a thread called Worth Pattern Since 1990 or something like that...and mention it in there. Tuesdays event is a classic boundary/get it while the going is bad type snow for the MA. The LSV is in a decent spot based on today's model trends if you disregard the GFS.

Per usual it needs to stretch down to Central Florida to give me the white stuff next week :-). There is always a snow chance when I go away.

Yea, our cold snap last year was end of January. Beginning of January temps were very similar to now though we were getting small snow events every few days (nights since the daytime temps never stayed below freezing until the 21st).

The "Spring crops are ruined by lack of cold and snow" types are getting ready to start popping out of the woodwork. I had hoped I would never have to deal with talking about that again. But with the MA LR thread now starting to traverse into February talk some are soon going to start talking about the whole winter being gone regardless of the fact that most of the information over there ends up being wrong when actual weather plays out. In reality as long as the cold stays close enough to us to matter, like it has been doing, we can get a dirty snow storm at any point including next week. Not great but still better than 60's and 70's like last early winter.

The weeds are punting their off season.

So we ended up about 20 degrees higher than you today. Assuming the NWS forecast for you was similar to mine they busted about 15 too low in your hood.

It was about 400 feet away an hour ago and down under 200 now. LOL. I feel like I should be blaring a fog horn or something. Interesting weather during our "winter" of 2019-2020.

Yep, my own little slice of summer. Though the temps have dropped and the fog is creeping back down the mountain now.

@Cashtown_Coop we were touching a bit on micro climates a couple weeks back, with the ice in your back yard and 40's and 50's in mine, and I just spent the day in Thurmont, Cascade, and Pen Mar mired in fog and mid 40's and arrived home to sunny and low 60's. Just a couple miles apart. This pic tells it all. My development is the white group of houses just to the left of the silo at 1/4 way up the mountain and just a few hundred further up the temps drop 10-15 degrees in what looks like the top of a marshmallow sundae when taken a mile back away from my place.. Cool and sad at the same time (why I rarely get ice storms).

Well my early Jan predict of some snow is turning into yet another cutter. The zonal flow has not materialized as hoped.

Was on Sideling Hill range east of Breezewood and it was 63 and more that an hour in the sun would have produced a burn on sensitive people. Great day to be outside.

Very favorable track on the 0Z Euro in early January. Just need to find the cold....about 10 degrees worth.

I second this especially cold and windy...we need the cold for snow but single digits and no snow is worse than 50 and no snow, in my opinion.

Last year around this time we were saying the weather reminded us of Early October so that is a move in the right direction I guess.

57 here and feels great for the day. Day started off in the 20's so quite a large range.

Eyeballin' it the gfs has been much better as of late as to the 5 to 7 day range.

Ho, ho, ho....get your shovels ready Jan 1-5 young man. (If HM can do it so can I).

You too. Like others have said at least it will be good travel weather. Stressful dealing with snow and visiting family. I noticed the GFS was showing near 60 (LSV) a week from today but back to colder temps after that. This is still a lot better than last December and think we see a decent chance of something wintry Jan 1-5.

I went from Gettysburg to Fayetteville today and the scene starting around Adams County Winery up the hill and over to almost Caldeonia is simply amazing. The sun was out so the ice encased trees were shinning in full brilliance. Even more impressive was that the ice was not melting despite the sun. It was 39 before the climb and 31 as I passed along the top of the ridge. 8 degree drop in just 5-10 min.

Yea, I hardly hear anyone say "farm show weather" anymore. It would be good to get that train back on track.

Your beer should be stocked up regardless, right :-). I am going to make a prognostication that I have seen enough in the MR runs trying to make it snow here, Jan 1st-5th, that I think we all get accumulating snow then though if you look at the EC right now it is cutter, cutter, cutter. Other guidance has vacillated back and forth on trying to set up a more zonal flow or even east coast trough in that period and if that were to happen we are in line for something.

It was what I believe to be the biggest statewide snow producer in modern Florida history. 1977 may be up there as well. Regardless of my Florida connections I still find snow/frozen down there an interesting thought process especially accumulating like in 1993.

I live quite close to your climo being just over the state line, into PA, about two miles N/E of Ringold but about 200 feet down from you at 805 feet for my elevation. I can get to over 2000+ feet in just minutes though if I need to feel better. High Rock and Mount Quirauk are visible out my front door. Ha. You have a great point as it pertains to their ability to win in what I would call a more zonal regime because the southern 2/3 of that forum will very frequently end up on the wrong side of the boundary so my insistence that wringing hands over pattern is less worrisome up here. But I still believe the end result of said wringing is so often wrong, and quite frequently very wrong, that it is counter productive. If I were a teen and just getting interested in weather that MR/LR thread would push me away from it. And many people mix up the discussion between apparent and pattern weather talk. Outside the zonal/boundary chances people south of DC need a pressing then slightly retreating high to have a decent chance of a snow storm. That could happen in almost any pattern and is indeed more likely to have a positive effect in prime climo. If you want a KU then we need a block but otherwise I feel it all comes down to timing of the moisture interacting with said HP and luck is the final determiner. Pattern talk is anyone's right but I think it is weighed WAY too much as to what it is worth.