Bubbler86

That's one of my questions as it makes the states much less significant if so.

I think I could say anything and you would get a reply in about snow coming. LOL.

Great info, thanks. So the top two are 2 of the last 3 decades. Wonder if there are any record keeping issues there as otherwise that is pretty definitive info that it is VERY rare to hit 68 in January and we have indeed had more days at that temp since some time in the 1970's.

If my A/C was not covered up it would be on right now. Crazy 74 degrees in my house. Terrible.

LOL, I was more posting for my own info vs. yours guys discussion. I do not have time to check now but guessing if you did the other decades back to 1950's it was at least a little less common. The 2017/2018 seasons skewed this last decade high. Edit-Blizz (and maybe Nut) are probably steaming seeing posts about temps in the 70's but this is a weather board not just a winter weather board. I like discussing extremes. :-)

I just did a QUICK scan back to Dec 2010 for any days in Dec-Feb that reached 68 or higher. There is a decent chance I missed one or two but these are most of them. Just listing months and temps. Feb 2011 (1)-68 Dec 2013(1)-70 Feb 2017(5) 68,68,69,75,76 Feb 2018(2) 77,79

We did hit 70 at least once in the last year or two and as @daxx said it seems more common in recent winters but I was thinking it is still farily rare when taking all winters, maybe since 1950, into consideration. We have a stats guy on here...who was it, @Jns2183 maybe?

Someone made the comment that it hits 70 every winter. I did not have the time to check then but doubt that is a norm except in the last decade or two. I do not remember it hitting 70's much in the 80's or 90's (between Dec 1 and March 1).

Might need some sun to get there. For once you are warmer than me. Just 61 here but the winds are so fierce it feels a lot colder.

Its hard being a Cowboys fan these days. The glory years are long gone. Watching the Cowboys is sort of like using the Canadian model to forecast weather. You think they can win/its going to snow every week but something always happens to end up making the fans/model readers look like fools.

How 'bout them Cowboys.

That won't get your banned in Philly. Ralph Wiggum will take your pic and explain how it suggests a flip in the pattern in the 11-15 day range.

Saturday is looking like our seemingly annual winter 70+ day for a high in the LSV southern sections.

Someone, somewhere, is unhappy you did not win the snow contest yesterday and is going to change that today.

Congrats to the people that scored big. I have not heard how N MD did in my 4-6" gamble zone. Pics from my wife showed about 2" my way with no accumulation on paved surfaces...not even driveways.

Seeing some back building out by Cumberland, MD. Doubt it builds back to 1" rates but something to watch.

I get such a bad time for being realistic vs. just saying snow all the time. LOL One thing that worries me about that 4+" total in the Catoctin's, just south of the Mason Dixon, is that back line is racing westward pretty fast. I expect it pivot's some for the Eastern folks but the accumulating snow has already left the far S/W corner of Franklin county.

I bet we see some 4-6" totals near by if not over some...especially the ridges just south into Maryland. near Emmittsburg and such.

And I am in Florida. LOL. That band of heavy snow out near Cumberland looks to have Franklin and Adams in its sights. Our areas look great if the qpf gets into them.

Popped in to see how things were going...surface temps seem a tad warm right now and DP's are already in the mid 20's but like the latest GFS depiction of really putting the LSV just on the other side of the R/S line making it jackpot town. It's where you want to be.

If I thought it was going to lay on the roads I would say get the plows ready but not sure it lays much on primary road surfaces.

No mention of the 18z gfs. Sheesh

I did not have time to go back and look a the specific days I was referring to but I remember two things I saw....one more close to the 16th or 17th, what I thought looked like a phase opportunity, then the 20th for more of an old fashioned over running chance. Tied up a bit so cannot give it much more thought but did not want to let the thread drop without me giving an answer. I just quickly glanced at the 12Z GFS and the resulting weather modeled, outside patterns, is same old/same old for this year...like you mentioned...wrong side of the boundary and little in the way of CAD hopes. I see Dax had some good news from the EPS.

As you have probably seen me mention I stay away from some of the more technical meteorological definitions because I do not always understand them well enough to comment and I think there is too much weight placed in trying to define patterns into each category however what I saw on the 12Z GFS (did not look at 18Z) was a trough that was threatening to go negatively tilted with LP's near by in both the Northern and Southern Stream (and an HP just departing to our North East). It did not work out on those panels but to me it was the closest thing to a SEC/MECs I have seen so far this winter. In fact there was more that one opportunity on that 12Z GFS with other chances of boundary snow. The cutter parade has been a nightmare for at least two winters in a row now.

I definitely like the mid January potential the GFS has shown the last few runs. Pattern wise it is close to something interesting.