Jump to content

Bubbler86

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    29,675

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    It is a a peculiar hole. Shows on nam and gfs. Almost like an eye of calm around qpf and encircling it.
  2. Bubbler86
    And I did not mean to not mention the deep colors out your way. I do have an LSV slant to my posts sometimes.
  3. Bubbler86
    Goofus wants to ruin it for me
  4. Bubbler86
    Yea, it really lite up the Mason Dixon with an extremely heavy line of sleet. LSV never goes above freezing. 3K Sleet map from MA:
  5. Bubbler86
    0Z Nam Kucera for PA (before sleet)
  6. Bubbler86
    On queue from your note the 0Z HRRR is starting almost everyone off with snow for round two but it is light and borders on negligible along the far southern tier. I know better than to take HRRR qpf amps too seriously but I like watching for trends.
  7. Bubbler86
    I am (especially for me) a bit worried about the 18Z GFS depiction of it breaking 40 tomorrow. I know in the LSV that can sometimes be overdone but on my side of the mountain it can go up fast. GFS gets the 40 degree line just south of MDT while NAM puts many into the mid 30's. Previously I was thinking it would not break freezing tomorrow but now I am wondering.
  8. Bubbler86
    Another HRR trend I have noticed is the speed up of the finger of snow (AKA the warm front). At 18Z the snow was just getting into Franklin count at 7AM while now the depiction is for the snow to be breaking out just West of Harrisburg at the same time. A bit more than an hour jump forward.
  9. Bubbler86
    It's one of "them there" forum splitters. Canderson gets WSW snows while Daxx just has to broom off and and I am getting soap and bucket ready to wash my car in the rain that is going to fall.
  10. Bubbler86
    It certainly does. GFS is a Horst special.
  11. Bubbler86
    SO 18Z GFS is really chincy with snow in my neck of the woods. Basically none. 1-2" for most of the LSV though MDT scores big with 3-4". Discouraging. Many lose 850's before the second batch gets here. Most definitely a trend away from wintry in the 18Z suite started off by the HRR.
  12. Bubbler86
    Why do you post the sleet maps? LOL. And it's 12Z! LOL.
  13. Bubbler86
    I will be surprised if anyone in PA ends up lower than 2" but otherwise this is the HRRR verbatim as it pertains to the LSV.
  14. Bubbler86
    The 18Z NAM does not agree with the HRRR so I am more confident in your throw it out statement. The Nam does minor out that first finger of snow though...less than 1" for some now...but has a heavy burst of snow to start off round 2 in the LSV before changeover.
  15. Bubbler86
    If the sun breaks out I would not bet totally against it. The longer the break between shields the more risk.
  16. Bubbler86
    I am seeing the first chink in the armor of the "getting colder" trend. HRR was all frozen at 12Z but has now introduced the second shield starting off as plain rain for southern areas. It erodes the surface temps due to the long pause between precip events. I think it is too warm but regardless a 4-5 degree jump in temps from 12Z for some reason. The HRRR did not too so badly the last event.
  17. Bubbler86
    Technically the Euro goes snow again next weekend but it is an iffy setup with a fairly week high providing CAD.
  18. Bubbler86
    Euro 850's still punch fairly far North as the storm concludes
  19. Bubbler86
    Here is Euro snow through 7PM tomorrow when the event is over...this should not include sleet and would be higher if the precip had not changed over.
  20. Bubbler86
    And the Rgem is a bit better than its more long term cousin but still warmer than I was expecting. "That's what HRRR" said suggests 2-4" over the LSV before changeover.
  21. Bubbler86
    Interesting the Canadian is the least wintry of the GFS, NAM, ICON,and itself. Not used to that. Jumps surfaces temps above freezing through 2/3 of PA. That's not going to happen in my opinion but used to having to mute the over exuberance of it.
  22. Bubbler86
    Nam follows up the 1-2" of snow with 6 solid hours of sleet with maybe a little Frz at the end for far south. Second round continues to start just after noon for Western LSV.
  23. Bubbler86
    12Z Nam continues the finger of snow to start of festivities around day break tomorrow. Moderate snow at that. Would make travel a bit difficult from the 7-10AM time slow in the LSV.
  24. Bubbler86
    It makes it to NY west of us but only to Williamsport area eastern half of the state. Very quickly reaches down post storm as mag has been pointing out.
  25. Bubbler86
    Naming us with 2 to 4 before sleet bomb.
×
×
  • Create New...