Bubbler86

Yea, we need mid west bowling balls or SLP's to form in the Lower Miss Valley and take that (what used to be) normal trajectory of a North East progression....then we can use our moderately chilly air for something. Pattern/schmattern it bewilders me that these type of systems are becoming so rare the last two years. Even calling the one this weekend a Miller B is a stretch when the Primary is so far north of us before transfer.

And where it is showing snow the surface temps are all above freezing Hell its above freezing directly north of us in Canada when that panel would be valid.

Because my area was on the cusp from the very beginning I have been noticing the trends on this one fairly closely and if you go back 2-3 days you will see the rain/snow line advancing further north if not every run at least every few runs. So this may be one run but the trend has been several unfortunately.

Yea, it (and the EC) really misled us for a few days.

It's not Debbie stuff. We are here to discuss the weather, model output, etc...if you were trying to play the Nam and Icon as being good for snow then you would be bull shitting. LOL. Debbie is looking at a situation that looks decent but could go bad and saying it will go bad. Right now this does not look decent. We have once again fallen prey to the seemingly always wrong 4-7 days EC and GFS depictions to hope for something and slowly seen it taken away as it gets closer. Been a bad trend the last two winters especially this one.

Nam is coming in a smidge North so not going to be good news for a miracle on this run. Not only does the LSV not get snow there is almost no snow anywhere in PA outside the Western mountain ridges and some random lollipops other places. ...yuck.

Right, I could only have one wish in per post. LOL. If we had arctic air this would be a bread and milk situation.

If the trajectory of the low were a bit different I would feel more confident for western LSV. Look at this panel on the NAM and it is where we want it if it were going east by North east instead of North by North East.

This is shaping up to be on of the storms where LSV's have to be happy for the folks in the mountains who miss out on most of the big coastal. Going to take a fairly big shift at this point in the game to get LSV back into it. 50-100 miles. When they say N/W of the I81 corridor I do not think they literally mean I81 they mean the whole valley encompassing I81....N/W of there.

Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS. Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me. Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

GFS is an I81 mauler but considering its recent demotion....

And here I thought the GFS has actually done better this winter than last. Of course I am looking at a Northern Mid-Atlantic view of it vs. large scale like the metrics.

Agreeing with @pasnownut the NAM is not our friend at this juncture....in the LSV. Taking too long to transfer.

Just peeked at the Euro and it still has the surface low traversing the DelMarVa over land. Still too far north for the LSV majority.

Buried under work today so just watching posts occasionally...,y input would not be one of having done any research at this point. I looked at the GFS snow map to see what it showed quickly and noticed that, at least for central PA, the areas it showed snow were pretty close to the 0Z Euro but that is my only non scientific input for now :-)

I lived there for 10 years so I guess I am just a bit jaded. Nothing against the sports teams just not a great place to visit in my opinion when you can enjoy the country around Lancaster or can go to Pittsburgh and get the culture of Philly without the overbearing city life feeling. PS-Let's Go Caps.

Right, I am just discussing what the 18Z GFS showed. If that surface or 850 reflection gets anywhere near Philly 1) We are toast snow wise. 2) It will leave our state disappointed which is the standard reaction of most who decide Philly should be on their vacation plans.

Out of the hunt was specific to this particular model run. I personally would prefer rain and 50's over a couple inches of snow and then rain and 30's. If you look back at some classic MEC/HEC situations, even in the times of a deeper cold mass, we want the surface reflection down near Norfolk and east of the DelMarVa not running right through the DelMarVa. We need it south of what the 12Z GFS showed regardless of the algorithms that showed snow on it. One positive considering our lack of CAD/deep cold air is there is little forcing shown in the GFS so there should not be a spout of warm air coming up....just do not want ANY warm air considering we have no cold to give :-). It shows almost the same exact thing happening again on Jan 30. Not as much the origination vs. a low running right through the DelMarVa which is just far enough north to turn the LSV over. Our benchmark in the LSV is not on land.

Well 18Z GFS took all of the Southern 1/3 of PA out of the hunt for now but still close enough to watch.

While we wait for the next model to step up and be our hero we can throw anything we want out to see if it sticks...I looked at the JMA and NoGaps and both seem to move the low under PA though it is very close and would probably not be snow for the LSV taken verbatim with marginal air.

Before you know it this thing will be in the range of the NAM and things will quickly look better.

120 Euro looks a lot like the Canadian as to low placement

Yea I was just kidding as that seems to be a popular phrase this year. Every storm is a forum divider in some aspect as if LSV gets hit big then Willliamsport is usually fringed.

It's a forum divider!

Goof is traveling faster and further south at 0z. Ups the stakes.