Bubbler86

Unless you like rain then it seems things always go your way.

Yep, its been two years of this parade. It's almost like we need to forecast on a grading scale because its not acceptable to just say we cannot forecast out beyond a few days.

This was Miller F (school grade scale) or Miller Z (Alphabetical Scale).

The Euro has a clipper and cold front passage at the same time. LOL.

True but this was a 3-4 day threat. LOL. The map I was referring to was from Tuesday at 12Z with the snow starting Friday night.

Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend. Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago. Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada. Just a mere 500 miles.

Probably in a literal sense as you cannot trust surface temps that far out but I was looking at it from the point of most systems starting off with the perfect track 5-10 days out and eventually trending north. No room for that to trend any where north. Its almost the very perfect track if we had a deeper cold air base to start. Would probably see waves of heavy snow pumping up into the LSV from the South East. Another alternate way this could work out would be for it to be a bit more south and east when it gets off the coast and intensify further south drawing in colder air while at the same time throwing its QPF blanket over us.

Great track but no cold air.

Looking at the 18z Nam I just noticed it briefly identifies a slp in the Gulf before the cutter takes over a few panels later. Oh to be back on the days where Gulf lows were a normal thing. Gfs is driving the surface low over Lancaster now. Sheesh.

I saw the MA people calling this the Bob Chill storm but we will call in the Canderson Storm.

And kids not wanting to go to school into the summer.

Euro is going to snow on us the Friday after this one. Here we go again. This time the fantasy storm is a cutting low running into a 1028 High.

And the changes cannot be blamed on weather stations being in different locations. Many people argue that with global warming the areas affected will get colder first, due to the melt off of ice caps, before the eventual warm up and change. Maybe the 60's were the beginning...

Maybe he is just busy like I have been but I think the most accurate model this year has been the @daxx 1.0. Regardless of why if he is not posting its not going to snow.

100% agree with this sentiment. Without the computer models we never really see as much potential for this weekend just the NWS AFD's saying it was something to watch.

End result is slightly better than the GFS but snow is mainly still limited to the far North part of the state and even that is much reduced. Surface low appears to have taken my Philly recommend is now going to visit Bucks County and the Lehigh Valley.

Its almost unimaginable to consider getting 70+ inches now. There would have to be no cutters and the jet stream would literally have to be running over us from Nanook the whole season.

Except for that really cold stretch I think it was generally much warmer last year as well but we had several lows come out of the Lower Miss Valley that eventually went just a tad too far to our west for all snow but still gave us a few front end dumps. Not to mention the November snow.

Yea, we need mid west bowling balls or SLP's to form in the Lower Miss Valley and take that (what used to be) normal trajectory of a North East progression....then we can use our moderately chilly air for something. Pattern/schmattern it bewilders me that these type of systems are becoming so rare the last two years. Even calling the one this weekend a Miller B is a stretch when the Primary is so far north of us before transfer.

And where it is showing snow the surface temps are all above freezing Hell its above freezing directly north of us in Canada when that panel would be valid.

Because my area was on the cusp from the very beginning I have been noticing the trends on this one fairly closely and if you go back 2-3 days you will see the rain/snow line advancing further north if not every run at least every few runs. So this may be one run but the trend has been several unfortunately.

Yea, it (and the EC) really misled us for a few days.

It's not Debbie stuff. We are here to discuss the weather, model output, etc...if you were trying to play the Nam and Icon as being good for snow then you would be bull shitting. LOL. Debbie is looking at a situation that looks decent but could go bad and saying it will go bad. Right now this does not look decent. We have once again fallen prey to the seemingly always wrong 4-7 days EC and GFS depictions to hope for something and slowly seen it taken away as it gets closer. Been a bad trend the last two winters especially this one.

Nam is coming in a smidge North so not going to be good news for a miracle on this run. Not only does the LSV not get snow there is almost no snow anywhere in PA outside the Western mountain ridges and some random lollipops other places. ...yuck.

Right, I could only have one wish in per post. LOL. If we had arctic air this would be a bread and milk situation.