Bubbler86

Big changes on the 12Z Euro for this weekend.

I thought of that but was not sure someone would do something confusing like that. What if you were born in 1969?

I think with temps you can punt much longer periods. Storms yea they change every 6 hours. If almost every bit of weather modeling shows warm temps for a two week period it is rare they are wrong big picture. Seems the MA thread is excited about the next two weeks. Almost like they are daring the HM's to punt.

DT punts every month. We are in the game the next few weeks regardless if anything works out or not. Not like its warm.

Blizzard92? It must have been one of those "technical a blizzard but only 2" of snow" blizzards or he lived somewhere else in 92. It would be interesting to hear some climate theories on why the 60's were so snowy. Having random snowy years is just random but to have them consecutive like that would suggest something caused it.

That storm probably made a lot of people on here heroes if they trusted the nam. To this day I have two people who talk about how I was the only one who knew 30" was coming. I thought that storm may have also began the reign of cashtown as the snow capital but may be thinking of another one.

Or you could rent them your snowmobile and profit?

Unless you like rain then it seems things always go your way.

Yep, its been two years of this parade. It's almost like we need to forecast on a grading scale because its not acceptable to just say we cannot forecast out beyond a few days.

This was Miller F (school grade scale) or Miller Z (Alphabetical Scale).

The Euro has a clipper and cold front passage at the same time. LOL.

True but this was a 3-4 day threat. LOL. The map I was referring to was from Tuesday at 12Z with the snow starting Friday night.

Here is the 12Z Euro snow map for this weekend. Thought I would post it just to show how bad it and the GFS did just a few days ago. Its one thing to be off by a hundred or so miles but the Euro showed snow in MD a few days ago and if you discount the 1-2" lollipops around Northern PA and New York the very same shield of snow is near Ottawa Canada. Just a mere 500 miles.

Probably in a literal sense as you cannot trust surface temps that far out but I was looking at it from the point of most systems starting off with the perfect track 5-10 days out and eventually trending north. No room for that to trend any where north. Its almost the very perfect track if we had a deeper cold air base to start. Would probably see waves of heavy snow pumping up into the LSV from the South East. Another alternate way this could work out would be for it to be a bit more south and east when it gets off the coast and intensify further south drawing in colder air while at the same time throwing its QPF blanket over us.

Great track but no cold air.

Looking at the 18z Nam I just noticed it briefly identifies a slp in the Gulf before the cutter takes over a few panels later. Oh to be back on the days where Gulf lows were a normal thing. Gfs is driving the surface low over Lancaster now. Sheesh.

I saw the MA people calling this the Bob Chill storm but we will call in the Canderson Storm.

And kids not wanting to go to school into the summer.

Euro is going to snow on us the Friday after this one. Here we go again. This time the fantasy storm is a cutting low running into a 1028 High.

And the changes cannot be blamed on weather stations being in different locations. Many people argue that with global warming the areas affected will get colder first, due to the melt off of ice caps, before the eventual warm up and change. Maybe the 60's were the beginning...

Maybe he is just busy like I have been but I think the most accurate model this year has been the @daxx 1.0. Regardless of why if he is not posting its not going to snow.

100% agree with this sentiment. Without the computer models we never really see as much potential for this weekend just the NWS AFD's saying it was something to watch.

End result is slightly better than the GFS but snow is mainly still limited to the far North part of the state and even that is much reduced. Surface low appears to have taken my Philly recommend is now going to visit Bucks County and the Lehigh Valley.

Its almost unimaginable to consider getting 70+ inches now. There would have to be no cutters and the jet stream would literally have to be running over us from Nanook the whole season.

Except for that really cold stretch I think it was generally much warmer last year as well but we had several lows come out of the Lower Miss Valley that eventually went just a tad too far to our west for all snow but still gave us a few front end dumps. Not to mention the November snow.