Bubbler86

You need to push that doozy back a day or two so I can get home...its actually Thursday night and Friday on the GFS.

That icon depiction would pressure the NWS for Warnings. Probably 4-8" on the grass. Canderson I am guessing it will be not too bad on the roads either way. There is no cold air so at the worst it will be near freezing.

Just for the sake of compare, the 18Z has the temp around 50, on Wed, where the 12Z Euro is 67 (my place) due to timing differences in the front. Makes the difference between a normal warm day and a once or twice a decade type day.

NoGaps looks like a moderate snow though there are no surface temps. WW3 and JMA are out. Edit 18Z Icon is a moderate snow as well though surface temps are not great.

Yea, there are certainly some people who look at models and think they are experts and critique from there with no basis for it. I guess my thought was that the people who are railing on models would have been the same people railing on Met's before models became so accessible. They have just redirected their opinions.

I do not post much here but going to jump in on this convo. The public only started talking about the models being terrible when the Met's and Want-To-Be Met's started posting model outputs in TV Show and web site graphics. It especially became prominent with TWC and Hurricanes. Many people who post models as part of their forecast do it as a way to redirect criticism..."Well, my forecast was based on the GFS and the Euro and neither were right so don't blame me".

For those not visiting the MA this EPS/Euro Ens map is interesting in how many show snow from a coastal near us this weekend. 17 out of 50 show something at least worth measuring.

I knew a warm up was coming next week (Next week is my Florida week...may be colder there than here. It was one night last time). but did not know mid to upper 60's was on the docket. Was not following it that closely but we hit 69 at MDT and it adds another notch into the belt of the 69 and over days discussion we had a few weeks ago. Fairly rare.

Goodness Gracious....not sure if this was foretasted before but could someone make a run at 70? A/C time. And then a little snow just 12-18 hours later.

Not often those coastal NC folks see a foot plus on the snow map. The Euro did like Manu Ginobili and Euro Stepped away from us.

I can guarantee you more than one person in Coastal NC, SC, and N Ga as well as the Panhandle of Florida are taking this GFS verbatim and running with it. LOL. Welcome to Georgia...want to pick your own Peaches? Grab your snow shovel and start making a path this way!

In case anyone ever wondered exactly where I live this snow map from the 12Z GFS makes it real easy to pinpoint the location. Look for the white hole where there is no snow in South Central PA.

I am having trouble seeing how anything works for the likes of @MAG5035, @Cashtown_Coop and myself. Pattern just seems so progressive and zonalish that anything is going to stay too far east but you guys over in Lancaster County are really in the game I think.

I assume Nut(s) is suggesting it is trending but yea that map as depicted is a partly sunny day with highs around 40.

I was curious to see what it did with the 3 day snow for the 5,6,7th on the 18z. Just totally dropped.

Send that slug into our cold air gfs. Edit-too progressive

I might have to start calling you Nuts? Ha. Icon for mid week getting enough even more interesting.

LOL, I am not insulted by my Alma Mater is taking a hit as they hate when people call us Bubbles.

I might have to start calling you Nuts? Ha.

Next weekend is one of those situations where I think it makes sense to look at alternate models since we are talking more about timing than synoptic features...The NoGaps is close to a phase and does throw fairly good precip back this way. JMA seems to be fairly off shore. The real stretch is to look at the WW3 for wave action and see where it is predicting a coastal to set up. Seems a bit off shore but of course its hard to tell beyond it disagreeing with the Euro and having something close. The Euro is a Sunshine Burger next weekend.

No phase and not storm on the 12Z Euro...for next weekend. Need some phasing or the southern disturbance is just pushed out to sea.

I have noticed that all together the last two years regardless of time of year. Assumed it was due to me aging and feeling it differently but it is very obvious when in Florida so I suspect there is also something else adding to it whether climate based or what not. Seems the sun feels more evident than it used to.

That is where you and I differ. To me Southern Canada is a frying pan on the panel. Low 30's. Really no cold air to work with except the layers above which means has to be heavy snow assuming those panels are exact.

GFS misses any sort of phase. My Biggest issue with all this is found in this Panel from mid day Saturday (next weekend). Going to take a specific circumstance to make a snow storm out of above freezing surface temps to our north.

Get yer' Icon... fresh off the grill.