Bubbler86

On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week). A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high. Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north.

There is our Gorilla

Ehh, did not work. I was hoping. It was a bit of a downer when I saw the NoGaps go east this morning. I know I am model watching instead of synoptic reasoning but do not have time for much else.

The Euro trended West with the precip shield but not enough for the LSV. Looks similar to the GFS without doing a map to map compare.

And I am being sarcastic like usual. Easiest way to blow of disappointment from the bad trends today.

Wow, you posted when the Euro was running...let's see if you have some mojo here. LOL.

He has been this week...we have about 35 min until we see if it continues.

This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this: 1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say 2-Its only 6 hours until the next run 3-I'm just happy to be in the game 4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough 5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface. 6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps 7-We were never in this one.

It was a 'Gem of a CMC" run though if you like mood flakes.

Not near dead. Daxx or no daxx we are tracking this one to the edges of the universe. Just doing a quick PBP with no maps because I am busy.

Icon has a case of the warminista's (and dry). Actually seems loser to the coast but the whole no cold air thing....

Yea, the airlines themselves will not fly planes into airports where they expect snow...sometimes 12 hours ahead of schedule. Southwest is terrible about that.

You would think but twice I have flown in to seemingly tough situations including last weekend....got lucky and that finger of snow never made it to Baltimore.

Yea, that's the one. Snow starts probably 2-3 AM Friday Morning. Mostly joking about the timing but like Canderson I get a bit tired of fighting snow during travel. LOL.

You need to push that doozy back a day or two so I can get home...its actually Thursday night and Friday on the GFS.

That icon depiction would pressure the NWS for Warnings. Probably 4-8" on the grass. Canderson I am guessing it will be not too bad on the roads either way. There is no cold air so at the worst it will be near freezing.

Just for the sake of compare, the 18Z has the temp around 50, on Wed, where the 12Z Euro is 67 (my place) due to timing differences in the front. Makes the difference between a normal warm day and a once or twice a decade type day.

NoGaps looks like a moderate snow though there are no surface temps. WW3 and JMA are out. Edit 18Z Icon is a moderate snow as well though surface temps are not great.

Yea, there are certainly some people who look at models and think they are experts and critique from there with no basis for it. I guess my thought was that the people who are railing on models would have been the same people railing on Met's before models became so accessible. They have just redirected their opinions.

I do not post much here but going to jump in on this convo. The public only started talking about the models being terrible when the Met's and Want-To-Be Met's started posting model outputs in TV Show and web site graphics. It especially became prominent with TWC and Hurricanes. Many people who post models as part of their forecast do it as a way to redirect criticism..."Well, my forecast was based on the GFS and the Euro and neither were right so don't blame me".

For those not visiting the MA this EPS/Euro Ens map is interesting in how many show snow from a coastal near us this weekend. 17 out of 50 show something at least worth measuring.

I knew a warm up was coming next week (Next week is my Florida week...may be colder there than here. It was one night last time). but did not know mid to upper 60's was on the docket. Was not following it that closely but we hit 69 at MDT and it adds another notch into the belt of the 69 and over days discussion we had a few weeks ago. Fairly rare.

Goodness Gracious....not sure if this was foretasted before but could someone make a run at 70? A/C time. And then a little snow just 12-18 hours later.

Not often those coastal NC folks see a foot plus on the snow map. The Euro did like Manu Ginobili and Euro Stepped away from us.

I can guarantee you more than one person in Coastal NC, SC, and N Ga as well as the Panhandle of Florida are taking this GFS verbatim and running with it. LOL. Welcome to Georgia...want to pick your own Peaches? Grab your snow shovel and start making a path this way!