Bubbler86

There is a discussion about this over on the MA thread so I do not not want to seem like I am copying them (note my CMC comment went up before their discussion) but I would say that yes taking the models verbatim we want the southern wave to keep trending east and allow the northern wave more room to work. The subject of trough positioning is too much to think about in my opinion until we see if this is even viable but I still go back to my same comments....no cold air. So best case someone gets a surprise giant snow flake wet snowfall especially east of the mountains. At the time a second coastal would be developing the closest below freezing surface temps are just at the PA/NY border so relying on cold from way above/atmosphere as just above is also above freezing.

That's definitely the way things are being portrayed right now. Just need help at the surface and just above: .

Something I have not seen mention of but have seen it modeled twice now...seeing it in the latest Canadian...is that the southern wave we have been so focused on is so far away from our area by the time the Northern Wave gets near that there is actually some coastal development from a transfer Saturday night which kicks precip back over us. I believe Mag touched on this today but thought he was more commenting on the UL/Northern Wave passing vs a transfer.

No doubt. I am just not saying much on that as when there is no guidance showing it we are talking Jan 25, 2001 type errors with the models and it is so rare they are that wrong. We are now within 60 hours of the event.

Hard to see DC getting snow at this point...at least with the coastal. Would need to be a huge change in the timing of the waves.

That NS wave appears to set off quite a bit of precip in the western 2/3 of PA during Saturday night now...on the GFS and I think last nights Euro. Most shows as rain on GFS but that is subject to change.

To add to this since the GFS was just coming out it shows light rain from around midnightish until somewhere between 5-7AM and then out of DC. Pretty much nothing north of the DC proper through Sat daylight hours.

Most models have no precip in the LSV and the precip in DC is gone Sat Am (after starting post 7PM Friday) near day break though the whole upper level low bringing showers thing later Sat into Sunday is still in play.

Yea, that's another good point. I have not seen photo one out of Buffalo showing them dealing with several feet of fake snow. I keep thinking winter will eventually lock in for a period and they are indeed going to face a late wrath.

One tell tale sign I have seen that I feel is fairly rare but not unheard of...there is not one area of frozen water anywhere in the parts of PA I travel. Not even in the Upper Elevation State Parks across S Central PA.

That Nam is still going to insist on a period of snow during early hours of Saturday AM. Both S Central/LSV in PA and the DelMarva. DelMarva is due to rates.

Dec had 21 days AN with an overall average of +2.3. Its very easy to argue that our averages are skewed low at this point as seemingly every winter at least two of the months are AN normal.

Yea, I get cold sometimes too...I have that deal where my hands get white quickly (raynauds) so if I worked outside I would certainly be wearing a coat and more winter gear as it has not been warm but I was comparing this year with last year, in my head, and as Mike suggested this years cold has been a muted cold. Almost like we are being teased.

The interesting thing is I did not really think we had a warm month but you are right in that MDT has only stayed below freezing two days in January and has only hit the teens 3 times with all being above 15. We have been colder in my area and have gone down between 10-15 a couple times this month but nothing major. Funny but records say we hit 69 twice at MDT this month and I did not remember that. Going back to Dec we had 3 more nights in the teens and 1 day below freezing but no days in the 60's. So as we high the 2/3 mark in our Met Winter I would not call this one of our warmer winters ever but for the purposes of this board it is one of the worst weather wise.

Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat. Have not worn a coat once this winter. I do not work outside but still....

Nam with a strange evolution snow shield for lsv this weekend. Snows down near the big cites of the ma.

Have been following the possible light snow event Friday AM pre-dawn. Precip making it over the mountains seems like a long shot but keep seeing more and more support for it. Also 84 Hour Nam also looks like we are about to get QPF thrown over us Friday night but there is nothing I see to stop the stuff from heading east by north east so light if anything at all.

Could be 3-4 days of A/C and one with some heavy shoveling for you :-)

On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week). A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high. Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north.

There is our Gorilla

Ehh, did not work. I was hoping. It was a bit of a downer when I saw the NoGaps go east this morning. I know I am model watching instead of synoptic reasoning but do not have time for much else.

The Euro trended West with the precip shield but not enough for the LSV. Looks similar to the GFS without doing a map to map compare.

And I am being sarcastic like usual. Easiest way to blow of disappointment from the bad trends today.

Wow, you posted when the Euro was running...let's see if you have some mojo here. LOL.

He has been this week...we have about 35 min until we see if it continues.