Bubbler86

We over 1/2" of precip today. Most of it steady rain. A bit more than modeled. When the rain started coming down with some intensity it would start to turn to snow but then back off as the intensity dropped.

The warm comes in full hog on Monday. You may be spared some of it up there and there could be a sneaky mixed event between two warm episodes next week (model reading).

Jury is in....white not wet. But really thinned/dried out as it descended the mountains so just light.

34 here so will only get grass accums if white on this side.

A hearty band of qpf now entering Cumberland and Franklin counties @CarlislePaWx @Cashtown_Coop Fingers crossed it is white.

I would gladly take the 1.5".

A snow map worth sharing....Nam suggests someone could get 2" on the grass in the next 24 hours. This could be the second largest snow of the season for someone. HRRR thinks it stays rain.

Steady Light snow and 42 degrees right now...in my locale.

18Z Nam continues to suggest a chance at some frozen tomrorow and Sunday.

I think the biggest thing about the warm time coming is going to be the low temps. I have not looked hard but have not found a data set of highest low temps for MDT yet. There could potentially be two days next week where the temps stay above 50 all night. Not unheard of but still possibly record worthy. Post some of that ensemble data here and before you know it the MA will be lurking to steal our stuff. :-) Edit-I see the Euro cooled down low temps a bit for next week. I was looking at the GFS which has MDT near 50 Tue and Wed morning.

No, its not a good setup. Almost like pity snow. The front never really clears fully and retreats a bit after that snow. Still something to watch. I will be watching it for delays at the airport at least. Just the rain could cause delays.

Euro drops 1-2" of snow Thursday night and Friday. Surface temps are again not good though.

I always thought he was a big thunderstorm person and loved when they trained over one area. :-).

Euro shows some mixed precip in the LSV tomorrow evening. Edit-And then another small area Sunday evening. This one is a mixed blessing though as it appears to be the warm front ushering in one of the warmest starts to February on record at MDT.

Close call on the icon

Yea, if you start sweating while dancing to the Pennsylvania Polka do you really need the groundhogs opinion on winter?

I went back to 1980 and did not see any months where 3 of the first 5 days of February had highs near 60 and lows in the 40's and 50's. Euro has wavered back on forth on how warm it will actually get but potential for a fairly rare warm spell considering the warm night time lows.1990 and 1991 were also fairly warm but lows were in the 20's and 30's.

Pic posted in the Carlisle Newspaper showing a man standing on the recently cleared trolley tracks after the early February "Blizzard of 1920". The article includes a veiled complaint that the American Model at that time (Groundhog) misled them. Hit X to close nag box that comes up and article is still available to read. https://cumberlink.com/news/local/history/tour_through_time/tour-through-time-blizzard-a-century-ago-buried-carlisle-and/article_85a50d8e-3593-5b5f-951a-77b64cf52293.html#utm_source=cumberlink.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2Fnews-alert&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=76d55c3450cb85adbb30161eeb9e70e4f90e8d7d

Abner Doubleday invented both baseball and global warming.

We have actually had a couple daffodils come up already and then freeze but not ready to give up on winter yet. Most of next week is pretty much a punt at this point but still 3-4 weeks of decent climo left. It seems like a good chance MDT will set one or two daily high records between Mon and Thur. On the point of whether the weather is warmer now that in the past the record high for Wednesday is 74 in 1890.

I just stopped over there and the discussion is about plants and flowering too early. LOL. I saw a long post from the war reenactor at the top but it was too long for me to want to read it right now.

Good thing it is real snow otherwise we might not count it (LOL). If you need help with snow maps let me know! The most interesting, in a sad way, about the Euro is that it does not go below freezing in the LSV for a full week starting this coming Sunday.

Funny...the Euro muted Sun, Tue and Wed to only 50's with possibly some upper 40's but now suggests 70's is a real possibility in the southern part of the LSV on Monday.

I only poke into Banter once in a while. Maybe I saw it but a lot of stuff in banter is just people trying to engage others into posts that lead to fights so I sometimes shut it out.