Bubbler86

I noticed the models overstated the snow for today....they changed up at the last minute. 24 hours ago they had snow in the northern part of the LSV and all of a sudden it almost all changed to rain the 0Z suite last night.

On my flight home Friday, apparently right beside tornadoes, we made it from Orlando-Sanford Airport to Hagerstown in less than 90 minutes. Its usually about 120-125 minutes. I had heard of tailwinds helping decrease time to fly but that was the most extreme example I have been part of.

We took a walk today and had to swat away gnats. At this point we have not had a winter and with only 3 weeks left its possible we don't have one at all.

18Z actually starts off as snow for the LSV now.

Yea, and the same map at 6Z had all snow. The process has been going the same as all the other systems this year, save for that one that surprised York county with big snow. Backing off as it gets closer to the event. I think we need more than it passing under us. We need a high to our North East to hold in cold air. The Icon from yesterday morning.

Yea, that does not sound like it would be something that would be a fun life. I do not blame you for changing.

Good Luck with it. Changing jobs, worrying about jobs, etc...puts weather into perspective of it not being all that important (unless you have to drive in it).

Unfortunately with the lack of cold air we would need it to come way under us using the temp maps I am seeing and I would not think it would. The 12Z Icon had cold air pressing in from the North East but not sure I would see the Nam doing that. The High on the 12Z Icon is now apparently gone on the 18Z Icon. Frustrating.

The problem I see is the temps in addition with the forming slip already being a bit high in latitude. But as I said in my other post I was more making fun of my post form earlier today.

It was a play on my previous post from this AM where someone in the MA forum said the 100+ hour Nam looked good.

18Z NAM would be disappointing in the next few panels after 84. On the flip side that WAA snow keeps creeping further and further south in PA Sunday night.

ICON hardly wait,

I just read a Nam extrapolation out past 100 hours over on the MA so people are trying to find hope. I like to see the NAM get some respect but not sure I would defend it past 84 hours though. LOL. That used to be called something...the DGEX or EXETA or something like that.

Where is the credit card slot?

Will be really surprised if we get 2-4" of snow today. So will a lot of people since there is not mention of it in the zones.

In the LSV it's hard to take any accumulation threats seriously with temps in the mid 40's right now.

I am flying into HGR tomorrow AM so might get descend through it....under a tornado watch down here right now. LOL.

I posted the 12Z Nam showing snow back here but did not see anything else showing it so not so sure I buy the Nam's post front snows at this point.

Nam trying to get a burst of snow for even areas of the LSV tomorrow (west).

We have had a few moments of tension here this year but watching yet another decent poster get his ass handed to him in the MA I wanted to state my appreciation for most here. NOT mentioning specific names but we have one top level met Who does not feel the need to mock others, then probably half a dozen amateur forecasters (some paid) who bring different skills sets amongst each of them....then we have another set weather fans who round out a full board where were are, in some ways, friends each winter and for some all year. For the most parts the egos stay out of the way here and I hope that continues.

Yea, that's what I meant. Franklin, Cumberland and at least part of Dauphin. Its in the 40's in those areas right now and the zones have no mention of ZR. The zones should at least match the advisory.

I will be a little surprised if they do not drop it for the LSV and maybe even the MSV.

Mag, at this point, and taking into account the current longer range look of a still less than stellar pattern, I do not think any kind of reversal can save the winter as a whole. Part of the fun of winter is the occasional white landscape and cold related activities whether skiing or just sitting in front of a fire place. Your locale is a good example. You live in the southern half of PA and will always have warm periods in any given winter but unlike the LSV you are not suspect to warm invasions from a coastal that is too close to the LSV to do them good. Your area should always have a decent snow storm or two every winter just being as far west as you are...getting sloppy seconds in late Feb or March is not a substitute for winter. Unless the depictions on the LR models are off by quite a bit I think this winter goes down as a dud no matter how much snow we get in March.

Winter is quickly fading. Starting to wonder if we ever recover this year....LR models now not pushing the boundary through at all.

Yea, I was worried about BL temps but not this...thought e had a nice piece of energy carving out a small trough with only one way to go, under us.