Bubbler86

The wind would be changing tomorrow between 7AM and noon but the reinforcing push of cold air is not coming until Friday.

Its actually already entering Franklin county though I bet some is virga.

It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up. A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all. BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover. A sloppy 1-4"

Icon will not give up on our Sunday snow chances so still something to watch I believe. Especially with our current snow jonesing.

No doubt the Pivotal map can be a bit underdone especially the Kuchera one which is what I posted. It is good though for removing the transitional areas like you mentioned. The radar panels never show frozen anywhere in the LSV on the Nam which matches up better on the Pivotal map.

Yea I was speaking specific to the LSV as I thought that was what we were talking about for this one. It did not do too well down here. It had 2-4" over my area and we did not get a flake. The TT map is so messed up sometimes that it shows snow where no snow or sleet is shown on the radar panel.

My reason is somewhat based on something more than my own intution. I will never try to forecast based on LR future indices and indicators that are often so wrong they cover up the true nature of forecasting. I think it is valuable to learn from them when looking after the event to help forecast but our SR and MR models have issues with getting apparent weather right day to day there is no way I am worrying about 10 day Ao forecasts. So my reason behind thinking the LSV gets some more snow is the roller-coaster nature of our temps this winter. Its not like we have not had temps cold enough for snow...we have...the storm track has ditched our best efforts to use the temps. Some of it AO based and some of it just plan bad luck. But one consistent theme has been that warm ups have been fairly short lived and mostly inspired by the negative storm track. If that trend continues it should be cold enough for snow well into March.

Its that messed up TT algorithm showing these totals though the NAM does show a nice 1-4" hit for many North and West of us. The Nam did pretty poorly last Friday so taking it with a grain of salt and it hurts me to say that. Here is the NAM on Pivotal.

I still think the LSV gets 5+ more inches but maybe not in Met winter.

That North Centralish area of Texas always gets noticed when they get snow but they are in a great position to have cold air dumped on them when a trough is centered in the middle of the country. In '96 they had 10" of snow in April! With that said they should not average more than us. LOL.

18Z makes it quite cold next Friday but no snow as a Big Mama high squishes everything...but that is ok for now. No cutting storm is a better look even if no storm at all for now.

Well the board is dead so going to play a little game...many have probably seen those EC Ensemble percentage maps Will posts on the MA. It shows the chances of large areas getting 3" or more of snow in a given period. They do not always make sense because some ensemble members will show snow in an area then that map show a 0 percent chance. I am going to give my percentages of a given area getting 1" or more of snow in 3 different chances over the next 8-9 days. The sole reason for doing this is to point out we still could see snow in the next 10 days and @daxx cannot really call it a snow map :-). This Wed Night: Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--20% Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----80% This Sunday Night: Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--20% Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----40% Thursday-Friday the 20th and 21st: Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--40% Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----20%

So maybe I am missing something but the chart should say lowest after each rank I guess. Note that they do use Met Winter for their rankings so by that definition Winter is down to its last 2 1/2 weeks.

Today's Icon and some other models the past few days are trying to enhance a surprise wave going under us Sunday evening with just enough cold air to make it interesting. GFS is not on board but that may be a good thing.

They will be in sad shape Saturday Morning.

10 days in we are a bit over plus 10 overall at MDT The min's last week got down further at MDT that forecast which limited some of the end result damage. +17 last night at MDT. Lancaster AP station is +11.3 for the month so far. We stand a chance of ending the month with an overall double digit departure despite several below normal days later this week. Not even the frying pan month of February 2018 was double digit so if we end up double digit that would be quite a feat. Noticed that the Lancaster station recorded an 82 in Feb 2018. Wow.

46 and almost calm winds this Am...feels like its 60.

You get used to it. It's the people that you cannot get used to.

Just make sure you very carefully pick where you live. Most of Florida is so very low class but much more expensive than living up here. Outside the fact that they do not have state and local income taxes I find it hard to find anything down there that is less expensive than here. Housing is way out of hand down there again.

Finishing up my second winter at this new location they have only had to plow here one time and that was not even in winter...it was the Nov 2018 Turkey Snow. They drove the plow around another time or two during the last winter but it was a pity plow moving rain soaked slush off the road.

12Z still brings a coating to 1" to the LSV before changing to rain but I am taking it with a grain of salt. There are lots of salt grains available since the roads do not need them. Hardy-Har-Har

It is Valentines week after all.

GFS forecast lows Friday night. Supported by the CMC and Icon...not by Euro.

I have seen other people saying the models have been doing well but I think those comments were in the sense of mid range big picture. For most of PA I do not think they have been doing well especially short term. We each look at our own areas the closest but PA in general has not been forecast well in my opinion. I saw people buying out the limited mulch at our local Lowes yesterday. People are noticing that its really not cold out and starting spring activities.

My memory is not perfect but this will be the first winter I can remember that there will be no frozen ground under my feet. It never froze much beyond an inch or two and that was a fleeting freeze that only last part of a day.