Bubbler86

No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient pattern we would get lucky every now and then. The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range. One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. PS-The "pattern" and results from last year were basically the same as the results from this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year.

Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend. Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near. History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk.

The HRRR does not get credit for those being off by 12 hours :-).

The HRRR continues to insist that some in the LSV see some snow this evening...passing snow showers.

With it getting up around 40 today while S/E VA and NC get a substantial snowfall I guess it points to the fact that we do not always need a pressing High to out North East to get snow. They are going to have surface temp issues and not sure roads get too bad but no CAD or cold to their north. Just from above.

All I had to read was "DT Land" and I smiled. He has his own little amusement park named after him now. The DT experience. My post was mostly to illustrate that (albeit op's runs) we get stuck on certain thought processes such as the 84 Hour Nam is never right and the Euro is always right and thought processes can work against us sometimes. Despite the Nam probably being over amped if someone were judging weather modeling on just this one event then they would think the Euro a waste and useless. We know that's not true but not only was the Euro the least snowy model almost everything about the eventual evolution of this system, as of today's prog's and specific to NC and VA, was wrong. It completely failed. I did not look at the ENS for this system 2 days ago, just the OP, so my comments are limited to that information :-).

I definitely think today's LR shows tracking possibilities but I would not put a dime of my money betting on it. Its always 7-10 days out so until we get into MR or even Nam range I am skeptical. We are just one high pressure being delayed by 12 hours from having a major snow storm tomorrow (and I still suspect someone here sees at least virga) so we were close this week.

@Itstrainingtime I think you not posting the Canadian snow map for next Thursday, especially for you and @daxx is like a sort of forced deprivation. There have been so many snow maps this year in the 6-10" range but this is sort of rare for this specific season.

I liked it better when I thought Roundtop had a bunch of cats they released on the mountain each night.

Completely off topic of this forum but I noticed some discussion in the MA concerning how the Euro was not overly amped for NC and VA a few days ago, while the Nam was, and whether the Euro caved to the NAM in changing its tune. I am of the opinion that the Euro caved. Nothing has happened yet and it could all fall apart but the latest Euro snowfall map is so very Nam like (from days ago) minus the over exuberance the Nam puts into its totals from time to time. I am a self professed backer of the Nam so I am going to toot the horn. These are 10-1 totals and that may not be reality especially on hard surfaces. The bottom map is the Euro from 48 hours ago as a compare to the top map of today's 12Z Euro.

I have to hand it to Roundtop, Whitetail, etc....for even having snow at this point. I know it is just down a few slopes and is not at all optimal but the fact they can make it fast enough to not melt out in these conditions, especially with the frequent high humidity/warmer storms, is pretty amazing to me.

Yea, I did not mean to leave out other sports. Skiing is the one most people see. That stuff will be back even if we are slowing trending warmer which is not a foregone conclusion.

GFS with a coastal next week around this time. May be cold enough...something to watch. Similar system to Blizz's post for a day or so ago but different evolution.

I just had a friend from VA send me a frustrated string of texts about this fact and how Global Warming is basically putting an end to skiing in the Mid Atlantic. I think we are just in a downtime and there will be more skiing other years but some people outside weenies like us are noticing this year.

All I know is that I am jealous of NC especially if the Nam's persistent insistence on a Mecs (Hecs for them?) comes to fruition. 12Z is impressive. and almost seems to stall the fairly weak recently formed coastal system for almost 1/2 day off the NC coast.

I was looking at the GFS panels which show it approaching 60 two days next week and the temp at MDT never going below 40 between 7AM Monday Morning and 7PM Thursday evening. When they do the departures they they take both the high and low differences so a high of 60 and low of 40 is high double digit departure.

I think the thing that struck me was the way everyone was talking about the cold night last Friday as if it was special...and it really was just a normal cold night at least LSV wise. Below average cold but something that usually happens several times every winter. It was balls to wall cold up in Northern PA. At my place we were actually colder during one of the earlier cold nights this year...they have been so few though.

The 0Z Euro snow map:

The Euro did actually Cave to the Nam this time as well. Not as cold as the name but still a very large area of 2-4" type snows now.

On the subject of the large departures this month, MDT sits at +7.9 as of today. Looks like some normal or slightly below coming up late week then a string of 4-5 days with double digit or close positive departures this weekend and next week followed by slightly above normal to end the month...so unless the MR guidance is way off we probably will not finish the month with a double digit positive departure. Getting up to 60 a couple times next week is going to keep it high but probably stay in that 7-9+ range. Still noteworthy but not historic.

Times in the past would have called for pointing out that the Euro is not good at short range. LOL. That is a weenie handbook classic.

GFS and Icon are caving to the Nam. Even suggesting Mason-Dixon coun ties of MD might see some flakes.

Only took 1/2 a day to turn it into a Cutter/reform over us. Model tracking this season has reminded me of this one minute clip:

Was travelling between York and Gettysburg today and there are two golf courses on route 30....both were overflowing with people riding carts and playing 9 or 18 holes. Surprised that the courses will let people play this early.

When that first day in March, or maybe April, hits that it really does not matter anymore there is a sudden hole in many peoples hearts at the normal model run times each day.