Bubbler86

Depending on whether one considers 2020 the new or old decade we had more snow than that before winter even started twice this decade (pr past decade).

I guess I need an energy person to walk my house. I had to keep the heat on this afternoon just to keep it in the mid 60's.

In this house its either heat or A/C. I guess we are old.

Maybe Itstrainingtimeinmaytown uses a stove as well. He probably told me as such before. We use 3 different kinds of heat at different times. Oil, electric and a propane fireplace. Keep it around 67.

I still do not know how you can deal with no heat so many nights. It would be in the 40's on my house.

Who is this Maytown character?

In the LSV it's going to be a borderline Chamber of Commerce weekend. 50ish, sunshine and light winds both days. Maybe a bit breezy late tomorrow. Time to get out and enjoy it.

In winter Americanwx.com without a snow storm shown on LR models is kind of like a casino that forbids gambling.

Elevation helped me out this Am. Of course my 11 is nothing compared to that -37 just south of me.

Coldest morning of the season here...down to 11.

Thanks for the run down Mag. My compare to last year was specifically pointed at the fact that almost all systems (save November) either ran to the west of the LSV or at the very least the 850 came over us. The thing that keeps that MA LR thread alive this year is the fact that many of these cutters are shown different out in that 10 day range. My memory from last year was that their true cutter colors were displayed on the models a bit earlier (except the FV3) . Speaking of the FV3 if that truly is the GFS of this year I think that is the most remarkable thing of all of this....this years GFS has hardly shown anything big in the 7-10 range....

Wedgies, swamp ass? What the hell are we talking about. LOL

Some of my friends in Florida think we get around by dog team and live in Igloos up here so I am never going to hear the end of NC getting snow. The "you guys must be below freezing for NC to get snow" comments are coming.

This winter literally has been the Groundhog Day Experience.

Late next week there is a chance of snow but does not seem likely right now. Until then spring type weather after tomorrow with storms going to our west.

I think some of that is coming from the front/LES type stuff.

I can jive with most of what you are suggesting except the boundary lines. I am not going to go back and look at all the systems from last year but the boundary was very near us much of last year as it has been this year and constantly cutters pushed the 540/850 line well north of us as we had snow to ice to rain situations. Its the lack of deep cold air that has made such a large difference this year. We can say it is AO related but I still have an issue in the way the models are handling it. I feel they were much less likely (except the FV3) to show things cutting under us last year....they were usually showing cutters in the 7-10 day range and that is what happened. This year the models, including the EC, keep trying to start out with Gulf storms or bowling balls that do go under us only to switch back once they hit that magical 7-8 day mark. So something else I/we are missing in my opinion.

On a somewhat related point, the Climate site for MDT is now saying they DID reach 35 last Friday meaning the string of 35 or more days is now currently still active and has no specific end date in site. Incredible....31 days now.

No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient pattern we would get lucky every now and then. The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range. One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. PS-The "pattern" and results from last year were basically the same as the results from this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year.

Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend. Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near. History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk.

The HRRR does not get credit for those being off by 12 hours :-).

The HRRR continues to insist that some in the LSV see some snow this evening...passing snow showers.

With it getting up around 40 today while S/E VA and NC get a substantial snowfall I guess it points to the fact that we do not always need a pressing High to out North East to get snow. They are going to have surface temp issues and not sure roads get too bad but no CAD or cold to their north. Just from above.

All I had to read was "DT Land" and I smiled. He has his own little amusement park named after him now. The DT experience. My post was mostly to illustrate that (albeit op's runs) we get stuck on certain thought processes such as the 84 Hour Nam is never right and the Euro is always right and thought processes can work against us sometimes. Despite the Nam probably being over amped if someone were judging weather modeling on just this one event then they would think the Euro a waste and useless. We know that's not true but not only was the Euro the least snowy model almost everything about the eventual evolution of this system, as of today's prog's and specific to NC and VA, was wrong. It completely failed. I did not look at the ENS for this system 2 days ago, just the OP, so my comments are limited to that information :-).

I definitely think today's LR shows tracking possibilities but I would not put a dime of my money betting on it. Its always 7-10 days out so until we get into MR or even Nam range I am skeptical. We are just one high pressure being delayed by 12 hours from having a major snow storm tomorrow (and I still suspect someone here sees at least virga) so we were close this week.