Bubbler86

Only positive is it helps the environment and saves gas money. Need that ridge to move out. Evening thundershowers are not going to fix that.

Boy was I wrong. We had two heat waves last year. My memory was a cool summer but it hit 90 30 times at MDT.

I bet MDT did not hit 90 a total of 10 times combined last year.

Yea. I think the best bet is to take your own measurements and record those vs. worry about the airport.

Surprise thunderstorms coming for the LSV ...probably most for northern and eastern areas.

Your post sounds similar to @Blizzard of 93 who thinks the MDT airport measurements are very often wrong. I think most of us on the Eastern half of the state at least verified today if not over achieved. Forecast high at MDT was 98 as of now but I think it was set lower this AM and it is 96 right now.

I remember some day in the 70's or 80's it approached 110 in York where I was at the point. Think it made 106 or 107.

94 here. Not thinking we get to 100. Gfs Poo-Poo's the heat wave a bit next week. Euro says chance of 100 in LSV every day. And precip wise the GFS and Euro are opposite as well. GFS with 2-3" of rain the next 7 days in the LSV. Euro almost nothing.

FV3. LOL

Plus it shows all 35 "climate sites" average above normal temps in June. No surprise just more confirmation that normal is no longer normal.

So do I with over achieving for the at least the last 3 summers. Its not often that we stay under the forecast high unless unexpected precip occurs. Maybe a degree or two under but for me anything within 3 degrees is good enough and I would say, educated guess, we have over achieved by 4 or more degrees 2/3 of the summer days the last 3 years especially using the GFS as a baseline.

Here in Franklin County we over 6" under normal. A pretty extreme figure considering May and June are two of the 3 wettest months. My Observations for the S Central part of the state is that models, especially the GFS, are understating temps very consistently especially days where it is sunny the majority of the day. So for next week I think the Euro is the best bet for forecasting at the moment. The 12Z Euro is still coming out on Pivotal but start of the week it still looks just as hot as last night's run. But your results of normally underachieving are not what we have seen over here IMO.

That's an interesting thought. I was not sure so did look up and confirm dry soil conducts heat more efficiently than wet. With that said I wonder how far down that theory applies to as most of this time of the year the soil will be dry just a day or so after it rains. But base don the Euro deception lots of back yard bulbs are going to break 100 next week. Also many of the members in the Eastern side of this forum have had near or above normal rain the last two months so different results possibly.

The HRRR provides Adams, York and Lancaster county some rain in a short bit.

Early May for us "dried up" folks out west but yes it looked great for a while with the wet and cool weather.

We are all getting old and very worried about our grass. LOL. Get off my grass!

Ouch.

Boy, all signs are indeed pointing to an old fashioned heat wave next week. Euro is still very hot Friday (GFS is not) but both models bring the goods next week. Definitely potential for some 100's. NWS used "ring of fire" in their AFD.

The Cashtown/Bubbler dry gulch express struck out today. We did just receive the notice from our water company stating that watering the lawn is no longer allowed due to forecast drought conditions. So like last year the midnight sprinkler guy will be coming to my yard.

Well all the guidance I just looked at suggests today is now our better shot for rain out this far west. HRR, NAM, GFS all bring showers "around" this afternoon. Tomorrow's rains all shoot by to the east or south now.

12 GFS Spins up a minor Surface Low off the SE coast and the interaction between it and the dying ULL low over New England allows for some decent rains Wednesday in and around the LSV and East. And this is after some bonus rain tomorrow. Edit-The Euro will have none of that nonsense though. Basically no rain for all of PA, except the far east, through July 10.

I still have hopes on tomorrow afternoon.

We need that ULL over New England to retrograde a bit more than forecast.

Adding May and June it looks like MDT is about 2" below normal during that period. You may be near your norm for that period with that much rain this month.

Unofficial again as my equipment is amateurish, which is why I frequently use a neighboring weather station to report, but we are about 6" behind for May and June. Average (whatever that means anymore) for May and June is about 9"or so and we have not broken 3" total for the last 7 weeks. Just bad timing at the start of growing season. MDT was in the same boat entering June but has had a good 5" of rain this month so far. I realize most of the LSV is not facing the same predicament.