Bubbler86

The GFS is more like a long term light to moderate snow vs. a squall line. Most of the day tomorrow. Front seems to go through your area around mid day.

CMC is....ehh....1-3 for most of the state...3-4 far east LSV.

In my eyes the mayhem makes it more fun...more of a challenge if one likes to do a forecast.

I am a bit worried with it as if we can keep surface temps down in the AM (we meaning far West LSV) we may get 1-3 in that morning slug then another 1-2 with the Front Passage possibly making my call bust low.

I am downgrading the west side of my first call with these questionable surface temps and the east trend. Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Cashtown, -1-3" wmsptwx, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Voyager-3-5"

You should check out the GFS then.

Every hour that goes by makes this look like more and more of an Eastern PA threat as to breaking 2".

Too busy to make a map so using my same screen name First Call lineup from before...for Tuesday snow. Worried about surface temps though especially in Lancaster. Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Sauss -2-4" Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Cashtown, Voyager-3-5" wmsptwx-4-6""

The Euro really lessened the threat for the lower and eastern areas of the state...Americans still going for 3-5" in LSV and 4-6" most of the rest of the state. NAM has no snow for far SE LSV though. Euro really is 3-5" of Partly cloudy for S Central PA.

Almost 2 feet at State College. Looks like 4-10" for much of the LSV. On its own right now with a solution that is bang/bang as to cold air and precip getting here.

T-Minus 10 min until Nut or Blizzard post the Euro snowfall totals.

5 years of double digit (or close to it) differences seems like a lot but summer differences should probably be expected with the less stratiform nature of thunderstorms.

Sn+ squall here all of a sudden. Ground and roads are getting covered. Surprise.

And the 20" to 30" the Euro progged for us a bit earlier...same storm/time period.

Between my own issue of seeing the sheet wrong and the "did they use snowboards" question I won't put too much emphasis into my initial thought that the last decade or two has seen bigger storms all time but it still backs up the thought that those of us who grew up in the 70's and 80's simply did not get the "benefit" of the larger storms. Thanks very much for all this work. It makes a great reference.

You are exactly right. I rushed through the chart and added the totals column to the 93-Current list and the split day issue you revealed is another problem in taking the trend too seriously.

Euro has us getting a warning level event with a trailer it appears. Not going to bite on that at this point. Waiting for snows on the back of a front is pain staking and usually fruitless. Air temp is marginal which is why I want it under us...no south or southwest wind.

It is going to need some more shovels to dig under us right now. :-)

Went back to this and found the answer. 1950's. This article discusses this topic but questions older measurements from the 70's and back at climate reporting sites and 50's and back at airports. __ Official measurement of snowfall these days uses a flat, usually white, surface called a snowboard (which pre-dates the popular winter sport equipment of the same name). The snowboard depth measurement is done ideally every 6 hours, but not more frequently, and the snow is cleared after each measurement. At the end of the snowfall, all of the measurements are added up for the storm total. NOAA’s cooperative climate observers and thousands of volunteers with the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS), a nationwide observer network, are trained in this method. This practice first became standard at airports starting in the 1950s, but later at other official climate reporting sites, such as Manhattan’s Central Park, where 6-hourly measurements did not become routine until the 1990s. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

Just need the harbinger of the cold to round the bend further south so this is not a green freeze. If we can get that shortwave under us it could be a decent snow.

Well this would put a dent into all these positive departures from the last 2 days

I am a little tied up today but did just do some searching for snowboard history but did not find much (the sport of snowboarding was invented in 1965 though)!. I thought I remembered people using snowboards in the 80's. I was too young to know stuff like that prior.

Thanks. Although the spike in 15+" snows starts exactly when it went from CXY to MDT I feel confident the station change is not the sole reason for this as MDT is notoriously stingy with reporting totals.

52 here this AM. Got up to 49 yesterday then fell back to 42 before spiking 10 degrees the last few hours. Only snow left is in grocery store parking lot piles.

Wow, this is great, thank you. So the data does show we have had less of the moderate snows falls in the last 2-3 decades but it goes beyond that with less snow fall events all together. Also MDT only had 1 snowfall over 15" during the 45 year period of 1948-1992 and then a Bigly 7 over the 25 year period 93-18. Something has changed whether global warming or another natural climate phenomena. I have another observation. Even if public internet had existed for all of that first 45 year period, boards like this would not be nearly as popular as they are now as many people here live for the MECS and HECs. Having 7 in the last 25 years has spurred on this hobby.