Bubbler86

I think at this point it is not out of the realm that some people in the LSV stay all snow based on the lack of advance in the "sleet line" still south and east of Washington. Once the forming coastal takes more influence it will push that line north but models have busted, even HRRR, in doing it too fast so any data after that bust is also suspect. Just a thought. The GFS depiction was a total failure for the Mid Atlantic.

Yea no doubt there are other possible issues but I hate to make it too complicated. I was not actually sure where Akron was until I just looked it up...just SE of Ephrata. So I understand you have the intrusion on both fronts as to the south and east. When we started looking for a home we were initially looking in Ephrata and were closing to putting an offer on a house in that Stoudtsburg Village (we have stayed there before) but the taxes were so out of this world we could not do it.

850's are still a good 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit below freezing for most so do not give up hope. Seeing reports of 4" in Northern VA.

We are somewhere between 1 and 2". Wind is blowing more than I anticipated and I am not doing scientific melting measurements. LOL. Heavy band is moving in from N Md and would say we are at SN+ right now. Still 25 degrees so I think that is where we stick for now. Doubt it gets above freezing until tomorrow.

And I think it is being buoyed by the nice back end snows showing on the ETA. So rare those come to fruition but all short range models I have seen are showing 1-4".

Hey Steve (going by memory on the name, hope I am right!). Yes, look forward to a fun cold season as a resident again. I saw your previous post about Florida and glad you are not trying to drive back in this. Suspect many here are going to get higher totals than they were thinking but the mixing is always such a wild card. I think Cashtown is on the eastern side of the mountains so he and I will have east and west side covered! I do go back down to Florida one week a month so I will be absent for any events then.

I am from Carlisle and last year at this time I was conversing with you on here from Florida. But now I am in neither and YOU are in Florida. I am so confused.

Surface temp went from 29 to 25 here so you can bet you will be well into the 20's with that low DP.

The HRRR is still insisting on an additional 1-2" over night into Friday AM. What a way to start off the winter if we get REAL post change over to ZR turning back to snow.

I started out as sleet too but already a light and dry snow. Just needed to cool down the air a bit. 27 here.

First flakes are falling in far southern Franklin County. They are a little "graupely" right now. Temp dropped 2 -3 degrees as the column saturated 26.7 right now. Its coming for everyone!

Yea the SLP is sitting in eastern Deleware at the time. Too close for the eastern half of the state especially in November. Dryslot and warm advection.

Latest HRRR keep almost everyone frozen into dinnertime/6PMish at which point many southeastern areas start to get dry slotted. Most of the 11 hours between now and then is pure snow.

Good Morning. 29/19 at the base of South Mountain. Looks like snow is breaking out in Greencastle.

32/19 here. This storm could do more than most Jan storms as it is. Many winters we get no storms with the potential for a foot!

Seems to show the entire Susq. Valley, or close, in 6-12" with an 1-2" deform band goodbye at the end.

I would still prefer if they stayed consistent. They can use the WWA to give people a heads up but the warnings should be for 4" or more or 1/4" ice (unless the criteria has changed since I was here before?)

Not sure they are allowed to do that. Criteria is criteria.

Wow, NWS warnings are not sounding as serious as they should. A WWA for York County. I think that is a bad call but we shall see in 24 hours or so. I think much of York County should get ready for more snow than than 1-3 and if it does change over quickly then more than 1/4" of ice.

Here is the UK from the MA forum. Paralyzed much. I also saw the Euro shows snow still on the ground for thanksgiving for much of this forum.

Ouch, his tweet does not jive with the other post. A "tornado" of disappointment.

That is a good call...not too conservative and enough to alert the public that tomorrow is not going to be a normal day/kids are at home. I think somewhere in the Western Edge of the LSV, Western Cumberland or Northern Franklin county, there are some 8+" reports.

WSW is out for Central part of the state even down to the Mason Dixon. I expect to see some legit 8-12" totals at this point...even in the western part of the LSV. It is the Eskimo Joe Snow Storm of 2018.

Since it is the first event of the "season" I would think they would be be putting a little more into the possibility of making sure people do not get caught off guard. 2-3" of slop on the road is still dangerous. People do not like when they forecast 12-24 and we get nothing but forecasting 2-4 when only 1-2 falls is not going to make anyone angry :-).

Seems to me that NWS is playing it down too much as it pertains to the LSV. Especially West Shore and back.