Bubbler86

If more than 20% of us call the NWS to complain they will see the error in their forecast.

Good call.

Might need some more tropical systems to do that. Doubt we make it by the end of Met Summer in 13 days but could make it by the end of Calendar Summer.

It would only make sense if we end up in the 90's.

Just taking the Euro's output into consideration, sprawling group of high pressures keeps most of the US dry for the next 10 days though there is a hurricane encroaching on the panhandle of Florida at the end. 500 mb chart shows our air coming out of Central Canada at the end of the run. Not cold but not hot :-)

In response to a post about posting snow maps it made me think of the MA LR thread and I made a comment that some forecasters in the MA LR thread are the worst at forecasting because I think its an "unforecastable" subject. PSUHoffman stopped in, to defend the MA thread I guess, and I defended my opinion. None of my comments were directed at a specific person.

I will only accept that if someone builds the Griffon (Busch Gardens) up here so I do not have to actually drive to S/E VA.

I do not want to drag this on too much as I am not misinterpreting my own opinion but we can agree to disagree how we see it. I said that the forecasters in that thread are the worst under the premise that no one can forecast long range accurately. The moment a discussion goes from technical discussion of something to "It's going to be rockin'" that becomes a forecast of sort and the point of my message you replied to was people who take stands and positions, vs. discussion, on long range forecasting will have the worst verification and that I use that as a barometer for what is actually good or bad. People who forecast for the public usually cannot do that and get away with it.

@psuhoffman I think my point is similar to yours and I used your forum as an example because some people consider it the holy grail of forums. But the majority of what happens there is indeed discussion, comparison and learning while actual forecasting, when done in that environment, tends to lend itself to sensationalism and catering to the crowd. My post was certainly not aimed at any particular person it was more aimed at the general thought of using the content from the MA LR forum to actually try and make a forecast will, in my opinion, end up lessening the final skill scores of the forecast. You brought up analyzing meso level stuff which is indeed more along the lines of forecasting especially when one is concentrating on past knowledge of local terrain to take model output and turn it into a viable forecast for any given area. Some of this discussion here came from previous posts talking about model verification and any particular model truly is making a forecast based on numerical data and the way it was "programmed". So I stand by my comment that forecasts, whomever may do them, originating from the MA LR forum are some of the worst. FWIW, somewhat like you I made a post in early December where I stated (used the word punt) that the first 1/3 of winter was toast and some of the locals here did not like it. I did not go into mid to late winter as if I did it would have just been a guess but to me that does cross over into a forecast when one goes from talking about what a model is showing to saying "This is how I think it will be"

There is one poster in this forum who I think would have verified higher than anyone else I know had someone been scoring correctness in stands taken on posts. He had a stellar albeit it short season since he never seemed to see much hope and did not post all that much.

This is an interesting topic. If this were an NWS sponsored discussion forum the fantasy snowstorm maps would certainly not have a place. But sometimes it actually seems like finding the one model still on board for a snow storm, 6 days out, lifts the boards spirits and may do some actual good as it pertains to attitudes. But yea for someone who wants to discuss the ins and outs of actual weather the fantasy maps can take away from serious discussion. I look at the MA LR thread as a sort of barometer. There is LOTS of technical, official sounding discussion over there but some of the folks that do that are among the worst forecasters on the board because they are looking for nuggets and take stands on risky, yet popular, theories that very often fail to materialize. A real forecaster cannot do that. The general public could care less if you were the one to call the 93 Blizzard two weeks out. They want to know what the weather will be today.

After comparing apparent weather with forecasted weather, over the last 5 days in the LSV, I think the bar is set pretty low for who can or cannot make it in forecasting.

You must not be signed up for my weekly grass update email. PM me your address and I will get you on the list. We had a little grass survive under trees but about 2/3 of our yard died and is now weeds or brown dead grass. We are going to be putting about a grand in overseeding this fall.

Or if you like tunnel action. I sometimes get on just to traverse the tunnels.

Its very wrong some times. It just changed my forecast from almost 2" to less than 1/2" for tonight.

Up to about 2/10" for the day. Grass watering.

I went the extreme direction. Nam or bust. I will never figure out the Nam hate when we post the GFS like it is right.

I will respectfully disagree. LOL. I could out perform most forecasters with just the Nam and nothing else (short term). The other models are just interference sometimes. This past winter was the worst winter ever for snowfall at MDT so not a good winter for verification.

The Nam is the go to model for snow hunters. It seems less reliable with misses. Not sure where to find verification for models concentrated on 72 hours or less.

Only a 1-2" drop from 12Z Nam.

Sucks

Nam would be flood watches for lsv.

If you get downpours Canderson is going to score the win with his 80=No Rain, 20=Downpours

Lsv gets nam'ed at 0z

Wow, we only got to 83. I did see MDT got 88.