Bubbler86

Meteorologist King Elliot Abrams. The originator (I think) of the term 'Gorilla in the Gulf'.

Hey Mag, It was me that brought the above up and my thought was based on Decembers where there was not even a trace of snow. I only looked back to 1988 but from that point forward no December at MDT has ever gone by without a trace of snowfall until the potential of this one. 2015 actually featured trace snow fall recorded 3 times. Trace, no trace...still basically no snowfall but it takes a special kind of bad month to not have even a trace. Here is the climate data showing a trace 3 times in December 2015 so if that is wrong then my premise is wrong as well! :-). The 3 green T's are under the new snowfall column.

You too! A safe and Blessed Holiday for all of you and yours. The afternoon LR models are backing down from a "great" pattern 14 days out so boo on them. The flips they frequently make give me a headache forecasting out more than 7 days!

Personally I am leaning toward any toss up storms switching over to being more snow than rain as we go into 2019. The pattern is going to be better and climatology wise we do not need perfect patterns that have blocking, great MJO values, etc......over running and Miller B's can drop a quick 6-12" at any point. Lets face it, we probably do not want the "polar vortex" sitting near us because 1) It is too damn cold. 2) Suppression becomes so much more likely. After this blow torch of the last almost 2/3 of December the pattern change, whether to just a better pattern or a great one, is going to supply us with some fun tracking. We may need one opportunity (maybe the cutter this Friday) to fall on its sword and set the table for the next opportunity.

The whole month of December is now almost 1.5 degrees above normal at MDT. Here is the climate data. Hopefully our patience pays off for January.

For the area below the turnpike it is fairly warm at the moment, with cloud cover already setting in, to hope for accumulating snow tonight. Upper 40's at most stations. Dec may end up close to 5 degrees above normal at this rate if we get another late week torch next week.

I am torn on this one. I think we are going to get a lot of snow in January and having absolutely no snow in December (MDT/LSV area) would make the turn about even more drastic/noteworthy. If we get a few flakes to end the year it is going to end our once in a lifetime no snow in December streak for what would amount to nothing. Personally give me 2" or more otherwise nothing at all.

And I thought us more educated types followed the meteorological winter timing meaning we are a week from being 1/3 into winter. That fall thread title needs to come down. LOL.

NWS did an SWS for your storm Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 324 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018 PAZ063-064-212100- Adams PA-Cumberland PA- 324 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EST...

And it may very well get back up to 45- 50 tomorrow so not an "arctic front" by any means. If we end up getting a cutter late next week we could be right back up in the 60's again next Friday. It is currently 65 at the Middletown Airport...it is 60 at the Orlando Florida International/MCO airport! This strange weather is fairly interesting when snow is not an option.

The whole time I lived in Florida I never experienced a gust over 50MPH while that is an every month occurrence here. Pressure differences were not nearly as common there. Going to feel quite cold tonight.

Hi Don! Good to see you posting on our thread. Seems some areas of PA escaped the larger rain totals though I suspect we could still see an additional .50 or so when our bout with "tropical weather" concludes with possible storms this afternoon.

If the sun can peek out for a bit we are making a run for the 70's in the LSV but 65 seem like peak otherwise.

It hit 70 on the 24th that year did it not? That is pretty incredible.

That is our penalty for the jet stream bringing us air from Cancun in late December! That precip shield is indeed huge. It may hit 60 in some southern PA locales before sunrise.

I think it is going to be a rockin' time frame from Jan 10th for a good month or so. Storms and rumors of storms every day! :-)

Outside our discussion about whether a completely snowless (potential) December is historical or not I see the pattern really setting up to be its best about 1 month from now and lasting into Mid February. The prospect of that should bring some excitement as it could not be timed better. The EC and EPS are both hinting strongly at mid January (with even some possibility of early Jan) for when we get a true arctic air-mass to work with. Any snow we get the next few weeks is just going to be lucky timing as the US is getting fire hosed with mild pacific air. This is not to say we could not get a snow storm but I personally do not see any true sustained cold for 2-3 weeks. I read somewhere that the second half of December is now progged to be the second warmest ever, by average, nationwide. It is possible there are no Continental US based reporting stations below freezing (except extreme examples like Mt Washington) during daytime tomorrow! That possibility is quite the anomaly this late into meteorological winter. Edit-And before we get back to cold we may be dealing with some fairly moderate flooding this weekend. 2-3" of rain.

That's a good map, thanks. A lot of people I have spoken to in the LSV think the Piedmont is State College and other more mountainous areas when in reality it is them! That yellowish area is the "Ehh, piedmont or ridge" tough call area. The WIKI for PA Geology is pretty decent. Who wants to discuss escarpments? LOL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology_of_Pennsylvania

Ski Liberty was on the cusp of opening up and they had put down a fairly good bed of snow (much of it is gone now) so he was probably over there hauling some back to his house.

...and I think some issue is picking which forum to post in. My back yard is just west of the LSV but I would still call myself South Central PA which is actually listed as an area for the Philly forum but in the past I have always posted and read here and I know many people here are actually much closer to Philly but pick this forum. So if someone in Central NY read my post they would call balderdash like you are suggesting. When I said "this area" in the original post I meant the area I was typing from but it could have been construed as the area the forum covers, my bad.

Well I said the populated Northeast which is ambiguous but to me means "the big cities." I obviously hit a nerve here and I apologize for that. I edited my original post and will be more concise here in stating that many of the reporting stations in Eastern PA have had only trace or no snow reports for the month of December and the POTENTIAL exists for that to still be the fact when the month has ended which would make this December one of the least snowiest Decembers, for those stations, in the history of weather reporting.

Again, not sure why this is being missed, I said December...not November. That map is October to Dec and is almost wholly made up of the one November storm as it pertains to areas of PA east of the mountains. The Northern Southeast has had a positive December for snow and NY appears to be doing fairly well.

Yea, 65 was an outside chance but appears to be a decent chance at 60 on Friday. Popped to 52 here today. My grass started growing again which is what brought on my comment when someone else said something along the lines of "This pattern is not too bad". It has been terrible for snow. Just scanned back 10 Decembers and not one had a whole Dec with no snow. We have 13 days to go which as why I said potential as anything could happen but we are setup right now for one of, if not the, least snowiest Decembers ever.

Yea, my statement is certainly specific to the LSV but really it applies to most of the populated North East as it pertains to snow. Not really going to consider the lake driven snow belts.

It actually snowed on 3 separate days in December 2015. All trace amounts but could end up beating this December. Temps of course were much warmer but I guess it is all context. This forum would not exist if we were tracking days above and below normal temp wise...its all about the snow/extreme weather. I am sure it has happened before but having one day in December with snow, basically losing the first month of meteorological winter, puts it down as a bad month for me.