Bubbler86

Here is an example from the just completed 12Z NAM which shows most of the LSV staying near freezing at the surface for the whole event but the column above does not. First map is Pivotal's snow map which shows little to no snow south of the Mason Dixon and maybe a 1-4" type snow forthe LSV. Second map is TT which shows area wide (including much of MD) 3-6" snows...same data, different algorithms.

I wish I could figure out how to live in the time frame "10-15 days" as it would be snow every other day it seems.

After falling for the TT failure at the start of winter I have found Pivotal Weather's maps to be more realistic but yea if someone shows a map for all snow until a certain point it includes all snow not just the storm du jour. Outside snow maps I think TT is much more user friendly and easier to see on mobile devices. TT's are more fun to post though as evidenced by the Wed rain event where FV3 showed 4-6" in eastern PA :-).

Saw a post about the GFS moving east by 300 miles ...I missed that one. It was on the Western side of MI at 0Z and now the Eastern side so some East but maybe 100-125 miles. It was in a similar place at 18Z. Probably the worst look. That UK snow map seems like fantasy to me as we have seen the UK cross over to the less snowy solutions in the last 36 hours over and over...UK's depiction is more something you would see with a low coming from Alabama moving East/North East vs. a western cutter. My biggest worry is the EPS and Euro keep moving the snow farther and farther north. They still show 4-8" here but the no snow line is not far from the Mason Dixon. I think that is less of an issue with temps and more an issue of the orientation of qpf and less falling here. Still think we get a plowable followed by a period of rain and temps 35-40. The Nam shows only a couple inches for the Mid and Upper part of the LSV which is worry. The TT maps for the Nam are almost all sleet and Frz. Edit-All these snow maps include the 2-3" (except the Nam of course) most forecast for Sunday night so the Tuesday event is really a 3-6" type deal vs. 4-8 like I mentioned above.

Yep and not only because it seems to have the best handle on the CAD (at least when I sent that out) but I do not share the opinion of some other posters that it is of no value. I question its short term forecasting scores but between 3 and 10 days I would argue that it has done the best recently, concerning placement of features and general sensible results, of any Global Op Prog. And I say this on the heels of reading that the GOV has dropped plans to bring the FV3 online as the primary American Global for an "indefinite" amount of time. So we have the CMC (terrible in my book), Euro, GFS, Icon, JMA and UK. Not exactly an inspiring bunch right now. Getting close to Meso time the ETA...opps I mean Nam...off to a lackluster look but I agree with you that the whole PA crew should be in line for a plowable snow right now. I think the biggest risk of it is not a wamer solution vs. the low winding up so far West that the total amount of qpf is not what we are thinking. As you alluded to before as long as it does not get too close any SSW winds will not scour out the cold as quickly as many models are suggesting.

Check out this 12Z models depiction of icing and CAD. Has the 540 line driven well North and radar shows rain but the surface temps at near or below freezing for most which indicates freezing rain though at these temps it should not be one that takes down too many power lines in the LSV. Northern PA would be for a major ice storm. Both of these are at forecast hour 99/about 10AM Tuesday.

And do not overlook the possible 1-3" event Sunday night.

45 and foggy makes for a slow forum I guess! I personally was not a big fan of the model trends yesterday afternoon and evening. Almost all guidance is converging on the second wave amping up in the Midwest which to me takes a large snow/MECS out of the equation as we are back down to CAD only. I think anything from a 4-6" event before the temps rise well above freezing to dry-slot and little precip at all is still on the table. Very similar to a few of our events we had in the last few months. FV3 and GFS are 2-4" before a deluge and temps rising between 35 and 45 LSV. There are still hold outs showing a MECS type now situation such as the UKMET shown below. This same situation is going to play out several times over the next 2 weeks and some models have lots of snow (GFS) while others have lots of rain (EURO and FV3). Welcome to the gradient wars.

Speaking of trains, this type of look is suggesting it rolls right into March. From Pacific Puke to Pacific Choo-Choo....would just prefer to see them come in a few hundred miles south of Central Oregon.

Seattle's Point and Click is snow almost every day for the next week!

@canderson mentioned it a bit ago but the lack of rain the last couple days, at least for the southern part of the state, has not been modeled well at all.

FV3 actually took a huge step back from its apocalypse snowfall I saw when I looked at it yesterday but the Euro and GFS both made encouraging changes in keeping the second wave much less phased and allowing a decent 4-8" snow here. Euro's snow maps are a bit strange so not going off those vs. assuming their would be a slug of WAA snow at the start. A better step than the models showing a Midwest blizzard yesterday. This area is golden for a plowable snow if we simply get a slug of moisture thrown over us and do not face winds from the south too quickly. FV3 from earlier

I like the term Warminista. Warminista's only talk about models when things are going their way. (Not that Canderson is one just to clarify).

LSV and MSV specific MODEL DISCUSSION (too early to make a call on what we will really happen)- The trend of the models, including the 0Z Euro, is to Amp up and phase the second wave hundreds of miles to our West. That is not a good look for this area as Southerly winds will over come the limited/shallow surface cold air just to our north even with a good CAD setup. There is a supply of cold air in Eastern Canada but with no mechanism to bring it down, a storm to our South and East pulling it in, we are stuck with CAD from a retreating High and with temps well into the 20's over NY that leaves little room to fight the WAA. For CAD to really be a big factor we need those low 20's to be over us and teens in NY when the precip arrives so we have a longer thump of snow and then ice (700/850 MB go above freezing) while the temps slowly rise. The GFS and Euro do give us a 2-4" snow before it is all washed away. There is still a train of storms showing up in the long range. If we can get one coming from the S/W to ride the front/boundary instead of of digging we will be in business for a special event.

I figured the forum calmed down because PSUHoffman sort of slighted this thread. "He said we would only have 20 posts, we will show him and not do any!"

Made it to 64 here. Mid level cloud cover has moved in so we are probably topped out. Nice afternoon for a walk! Weather Underground has a few 68's but MDT will not make it to 70 so @anotherman the string of Feb's over 70 stays at two for now. Doubt MDT has a shot at 70 on Friday since the warmest surface temps appear to happen overnight and the first part of the day.

It is almost certainly not all snow which is why I was putting snow/sleet. Doubt it is counting frz. Regardless I was using it as a caution to anyone taking the LR FV3 too seriously when it is showing this in the next 24-30 hours.

It snows/sleets between panels so looking at estimated radar will not show it.

Speaking of LOL's, the Fv3 is also promoting a quick hitting plowable snow/sleet event in Eastern PA tomorrow.

Well it is not at all supported but the Fv3 still insists you are getting a couple inches of snow or sleet tomorrow. LOL

To say today's GFS is a major disappointment would be an understatement. Not just for next Tuesday, which is just a likely to be a flooding rain as it is snow, but the whole long range. Hopefully the EURO suggests we can throw it. Edit-The rumors of storms are still something we can look forward to but I would like to see a consistent run of the boundary staying to our south and the GFS keeps up with cutter town and rain followed by cold. The 12Z Euro came in with a nice save for Tuesday and a 4-8" event with some mix at the end. Stays below freezing the whole event with a strong CAD signature at 850. 7 days out though so not worth much else than mentioning.

You are right. Feb 2017 featured a major torch about the same time as 2018...and 2016 also saw several days in the 50's and 60's. I think January thaw has turned in February thaw.

Yea, I had corrected but you beat me to it with your quote :-). Another amazing thing about last years torch is the almost 40 degree temp swings each day. In compare it may be in the 60's over night this coming Thursday into Friday. One thing that has become apparent is the models under estimated this weeks torch a bit. I did not see anything suggesting 3 days in the 60's like we may end up with.