Kind of reminds me of a snow storm post-mortem. Someone always takes the high end possibility and makes it fact in their mind. It was just a couple days ago (maybe 3) that Laura was a minor cane on landfall so it over performed from that forecast regardless of whether surge got far inland.
@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well. Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early. The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.
Yea, I just took a 5 second glance at the thread and saw that convo. I do not actually know Njwx so it was a sarcastic remark vs. picking on him. . I cannot keep up with the speed of the thread and try to work at the same time.
Its going to end up being a lifetime storm for many people. Extremely under-forecasted. I can add that I was sitting in Bradenton Florida the night before Hurricane Irma almost convinced I was not evacuating but all it took was a few last min runs of the HRRR and sirens blaring to change my mind and hopefully these last min warnings will be enough for those that were underwhelmed by Cat 2 forecasts.
Yep, one could argue that the issues from 2020 including Covid, Election, etc...have taken away from peoples time to be amazed at Laura who is turning out to be a mean one.
With all due respect to the ensembles I am still not feeling good about Laura paying a visit to our neck of the words as it pertains to significant rain.
Score one for the Hwrf. If anything it under did the results as they are being reported at this hour but it was much closer than the traditional models. EC was pretty close as well. Cannot even trust that this will not clip Cat 5 status at this point.
The only thing missing is the FA giving each area an astrological sign. The Northeast is born under the sign of Taurus and is stubborn, unforgiving and uncompromising along with seasonably cold. .
Recent Odd's would suggest you have a higher chance of HW without an HWO or STW. The Good 'Ole Canderson 80/20--20/80 has been in full effect the last few weeks.
HWRF keeps making it a strong Cat 4 at landfall. Might be overstated but the times a situation like this has turned into Rapid Intensification seems countless over the last few decades.
So the question becomes why are the leaves changing colors at this pace in August? The drought is worse than it is being played up by NWS for some but is there something else causing it?