Bubbler86

It has to finish reading the MA Long Range thread to figure out its next move.

That reminds, it seems the post counts were reset at some point. Maybe in the last 5 years or 6 years, they reset for at least some people. Does anyone know what happened?

CMC would probably be a decent hit if you excuse it for ushering out the cold air too fast. Blocks the low/or transfers south and takes it south of the state.

I personally do not think you are on to scraps. You have several models staying all frozen Saturday so it is something to consider. I was really looking forward to a big all snow event...on the weekend so travel is not as disrupted, etc...so that is why I feel a bit down about this right now. I accidentally clicked on the NY forum a bit ago and the words Ben Stiller flashed in front of my face...they are talking about the Thunder mode (Tropic Thunder joke) l in their forum so they going through the same thing as us despite being in the bulleye (though GFS is going to rain on some of them as well). EDIT-GFS also has a coastal for mid week next week...apps runner transfers over.

It is not good for us on the weekend...at least for frozen. It is the anti-cad.

If no one has said it recently, thanks for sharing this early info especially the EC updates.

Thanks, I still cannot see everything on TT just saw the radar and the 850 line pushing quite far north. Keeps things interesting.

Ah, I did say qpf. My fault. I noted in an edit that some of that on the weekend is snow on the icon but seems to have trended a but more wet vs. 12Z.

So 2" seems to be the call of the day from NAM, RGEM and Icon. Edit-Icon also still produces a nice front end thump of snow on the weekend but seems to have trended more wet vs. its earlier run.

The icon has it snowing from about 9PM until 6AM. Total qpf is not out yet on TT.

So the 18Z Nam still has a solid 2"+ fall Thursday evening with the freezing lines way south of us/no chance of rain. Lets hope we can enjoy that one and whiten up the ground some.

Thanks for keeping things alive here. The JMA is certainly nothing like the Euro or GFS but it does at least take the 850 line up to State College or more...probably a more frozen than wet storm though!

And it includes the snow from Thursday night so basically little to no weekend snow. I would rather this cut into Chicago not see all that rain. Cold heavy rain is worse than some showers and 50's. These changes have been so drastic that it almost lends to us waiting on calling it as drastic changes means lack of model verification usually. Williamsport is still in the game for the Euro.

Unfortunate...the board had become slow the last 5 min and I thought that might be a good sign.

I am in the bulleseye. Talk about in a completely different camp. It is running the low through VA. EDIT-Actually Cashtown is in the bullseye so we should take that into account before laughing at it.

I just went looking for this. This graphic is terrible but hilarious!!!

We will need our German and English friends to save us!

That is why I said the 'GFS Suggests'. Let's face it, the public thinks there is a massive snow storm coming this weekend and several respected people on Americanwx have been suggesting the Mid Atlantic was lining up for a string of snow opportunities as we advance through January. That makes this run of the GFS a major disappointment as there is no significant winter weather, outside the Thursday night opportunity, until day 14 or 15. we throw it out and move on! LOL.

Yep and I do not think an over-performing situation for this Thursday is off the books yet. If we can squeeze out 3-4" that is a nice snowstorm.

LOL, no question I am just reading off what the model shows. Just a model discussion. As you have alluded to whatever happens this weekend will change the future anyway.

To add insult to injury, the GFS suggests we are going to have some serious hydro issues over the next 7-10 days. 5 inches of rain.

I certainly see your point I am just so used to feeling like we need a strong HP there to help resist this from happening and the high is running away like a scared school child.

..and just to add to this, I am not making a point against Carlisle in any manner. He is as good as they come as to a weather poster. I was not trying to be pessimistic I was just hoping to see reason for it to snow show up in the GFS and I am having trouble finding it. The fact that it drives the Low near Erie is not the issue vs. finding why it would keep it in VA.

Seeing it drive a 993 up into Albany is kind of crazy.