Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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If it did not almost exactly match the icon for surface features and heights, I would love to but other than surface temps those two runs look too similar unfortunately.
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GFS actually shows rain for Thursday night in SW PA now...and parts of the LSV. Was not expecting that. 12Z is taking back some of our positive trends from last night. It has gone back into a phasing scenario, not as extreme as yesterday 12Z but not good for us, and we get a warm rain washing away any front end dump. Into the 40's for LSV.
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Personally I am going to hope the Icon is not our final solution. Driving rain with temps 32-35. 540 line is up near NY. Weekend front end "thump" would only be a maybe 4, 5 inches for LSV.
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Verbatim I guess but it is phasing back in the Midwest so it eliminates the chances of a little or no phase system early in that run. Also does a retrograde or transfer vs. drive up into NY like yesterday's GFS. A solution like this, on game day, will make for a very hard forecast.
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I think we are going to need some fancy stuff to happen with the Icon as well as it is north of Texas with the SLP at 60.
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The Nams final result (up to 84) is not bad for us but how it got there seems to be questionable...it almost retrogrades the SLP.
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The NAM is driving the weekend system a bit further North and West unfortunately. Lots of people say to not take the NAM seriously beyond 48 but last evening it was one of the first to show a less phased system and it has backed off that thought.
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12Z Nam is still game for a 6 hour snowfall tomorrow evening, starting 6-9PMish, and dropping 1-3".
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It makes a good precursor to talk of climate change (but not right now) and how HECs from our childhood are becoming more of a MECs at this point.
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After typing the HECS/MECS statement I was surprised I did not get scolded even for that. Everyone has their own version of what a HECS is. To me anything above 15" is a HEC's and anything above 10" is a MEC's.
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I fixed it right after I typed it.
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Borderline Hec's or top of the line MEC's for Northern and Western LSV. Uncanny how the storms always know where I81/I78 is as to contour lines.
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6Z NAM is going to give us snow as well. I am not a big extrapolating person but it is unphased/south enough that at the worst it is going to be similar to GFS as to the first waves trajectory. The snownista's are liking the trends.
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I think he will change his thought is he decides the phased solution is losing momentum. If a piece of energy holds back in the South Central US and becomes the focus we are going to get at least a plowable front end dump and could stay below freezing the whole event. Like usual a complete gamut of possibilities. At least, meteorological wise, there is a way we can still get a lot of snow.
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Yea, no snow in that pattern but newsy worthy weather. Worry about the homeless both humans and animals.
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Santa comes to pay a visit for the North Pole end of January.
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I think you would both be 8-12" just using the GFS verbatim. I do feel remorse when enthusiastically posting something which might not be good for others. I sometimes forget this is not an LSV forum. The GFS change is astounding whether it is stay worthy or not. I could not fathom it moving this far from its afternoon run into Erie.
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I am headed out soon my self but here is the snow map out to early next week. It includes Thursday snow, front and back end weekend snow. Good to see N Maryland getting into the 6-8" game.
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I knew your goodnight was not really a goodnight! :-)
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To me a strung out mess or even nothing is better than 1-2" of rain in the middle of January. I would rather it snow or be nice so I can enjoy the weekend. :-)
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One thing I do not like about the GFS is our friend from Pitt who was just posting bit ago....he needs that first wave to minor out a bit earlier to get him snows and he is so right in that Pitt keeps getting screwed.
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The first wave of the two wave weekend system. The GFS (and CMC earlier) both drive it up to about our latitude before the second piece of energy, trailing behind, takes lead man and heights crash probably never allowing us to get above freezing (in the LSV). Note the LP in Alabama and the now weaker LP up near Pitt. EDIT-And is that a Blue H sitting up in Eastern Canada while all of this takes place? :-)
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Is the GFS continues to evolve (like the CMC did earlier) to the first wave basically dying out, we are game on.
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Is it going to allow that first wave to cede to the second one?
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I think the uptick from tonight (and GFS does look much more interesting regardless) is that the NAM has given is the path to snow. I like having the Nam be the odd one out that is the long shot for a win.
